Silver at Rs 2,40,000 by end-2026! Structural bull market, not speculative, says MOFSL

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. (MOFSL) expects silver prices to reach Rs 2,40,000 per kg by the end of 2026, describing the rally as a structural bull market rather than a speculative cycle. In its report “Silver 2030 – The Unprecedented Rise”, MOFSL noted that silver is undergoing a historic structural revaluation, driven by a combination of rising industrial demand and strong investment momentum. The white metal’s price surge reflects fundamental factors, with demand growth outpacing supply for several years.

In October 2025, silver crossed $51.30 per ounce, up more than 70 per cent year-to-date, reaching a 14-year high. Unlike the speculative rallies seen in 1980 and 2011, the current uptrend is underpinned by robust fundamentals. Industrial demand now accounts for 59 per cent of total silver usage, while a structural supply deficit has persisted for seven consecutive years. Global silver supply is estimated at around 31,000 tonnes, compared with demand of approximately 35,700 tonnes, creating a deficit of nearly 3,655 tonnes. This shortfall is expected to continue into 2025, keeping physical availability tight and supporting prices.

Industrial consumption is projected to exceed 700 million ounces in 2025, led by the solar, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors. The solar photovoltaic industry alone consumes over 200 million ounces annually, potentially rising to 450 million by 2030. Each electric vehicle requires 25–50 grams of silver, and global EV production is projected at 14 million units in 2025. This growing industrial demand coincides with a sharp reduction in global visible inventories, with LBMA vault holdings down 31 per cent since 2020, reinforcing supply constraints.

On the price front, MOFSL expects silver to consolidate around $50–$55 per ounce, with potential to reach $75 by 2026 and $77 by 2027 on COMEX. On the domestic front, silver could hit Rs 2,40,000 per kg by the end of 2026 and Rs 2,46,000 per kg by 2027, assuming USDINR levels of 90–92. Rising investment demand in India, particularly through silver ETFs, and the currency advantage for Indian investors further support long-term gains. With its dual role as an industrial metal and a safe-haven asset, silver is positioned for sustained appreciation, making it an attractive portfolio diversifier over the coming years.