Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 11 points; Key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted on Tuesday, despite strong quarterly earnings from telecom operator Bharti Airtel and jeweller and watchmaker Titan. With analysts expecting some consolidation after a strong October and investors awaiting progress on India-US trade talks.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 11.40 points, or 0.04 per cent, down at 25,887.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Most major Asian stock indices climbed on Monday. KOSPI and Hang Seng were open in green, while KOSPI settled lower.

Investors await India’s Manufacturing PMI later today and the US JOLTS job openings report tomorrow, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "We expect the market to track the ongoing earnings season, while any positive trigger on the India–US trade deal front could create favourable sentiments," he said.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed higher, but Dow Jones declined on Monday. The S&P 500 gained 11.77 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 6,851.97 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 109.77 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 23,834.72. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 226.19 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 47,336.68

US Treasury yields rose amid high corporate debt issues and as the government bond market kept last week's bearish tone. The benchmark 10-year yield was last at 4.107 per cent, slightly higher than late last week. Cryptocurrency bitcoin was down 2.6 per cent at $107,152. The dollar index rose 0.08 per cent to 99.89.

In commodities, investors weighed news that OPEC+ plans to end its supply increases. US crude rose 7 cents to settle at $61.05 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 12 cents to $64.89. Elsewhere, spot gold fell 0.03 per cent to $4,000.26 an ounce.

Corporate earnings and trade deal developments are likely to guide market direction, in the absence of major triggers, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend a selective approach, focusing on sectors showing relative strength, and preferring large-cap and large mid-cap stocks for long trades while maintaining moderate position sizes amid global uncertainty."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,883.78 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,516.36 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

For day traders, 25,700/83,700 and 25,650/ 83,500 would act as key support zones. As long as the market trades above these levels, a pullback formation is likely to continue, with the index potentially moving up to 25,875/84,300, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"Further upside may also persist, which could lift the index to 26,000/84,700. On the flip side, below 25,650/83,500, the uptrend would become vulnerable. If the market falls below this level, the chances of hitting 25,550/83,200 would increase," he added.

This market action hints at a possibility of completion of short-term downward correction in the market. This is a positive indication, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. "The near-term uptrend statues of the market remain intact. Nifty is expected to bounce back from here and could retest the recent swing high of 26,100 levels in the next few sessions. Immediate support is placed at 25,650," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank extended consolidation of the last two weeks in the range of 57,300-58,500 thus forming base after the next leg of up move. A decisive move above last two week’s high of 58,577 would confirm a breakout continuation, paving the way for a rally towards 59,000 being the 138.2 per cent Fibonacci projection of the recent correction, said Bajaj Broking.

"On the downside, immediate support is seen around 57,300–57,500, aligning with the previous breakout zone, while a stronger support base lies near 56,800–56,500. Overall, the outlook remains positive, and any pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities within these support areas. PSU Banking stocks to extend the recent outperformance," it said.

Nifty Bank displayed relative strength, forming a strong bullish candle on the daily chart, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Going forward, the 57,650–57,700 zone is likely to serve as an important support area, while resistance is placed around 58,250–58,350. A decisive breakout above 58,350 may open the door for an up-move toward 59,000 in the short term."