Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 182 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are set to open sharply lower on Friday tracking the fall in the global market after the boil in the crude oil prices. However, the conflict in the Middle East showed signs of ease. Besides this, the hawkish tone of the US Fed also spooked traders across the globe, sparking inflation fears.

Sentiment received a boost after the US announced security and insurance guarantees for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Going ahead, markets will closely monitor developments in West Asia, movements in global energy prices and broader global risk sentiment for further directional cues."

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 181.50 points, or 0.73 per cent, down at 24,650.50, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Friday. Asia stocks fell on Friday and were headed for their sharpest weekly drop in six years. Nikkei turned flat, while KOSPI lost more than a per cent.

US stocks ​closed lower on Thursday as the Middle East conflict pushed oil prices higher and spurring worries ‌ about inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 784.67, or 1.61 per cent, to 47,954.74 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.56 per cent, to 6,830.71 points and the Nasdaq ​Composite settled down 0.26 per cent, to 22,748.99 points.

The war has ​so far had the biggest impact on oil prices, with Brent crude futures now trading around $83 per barrel, having been as low as $69 just about a week ago. US ​crude shot up to a 20-month high earlier this week. Both are set to clock a rise of more than 15 per cent for the week, their largest since February 2022.

The US dollar held broadly steady in early Asian trade on Friday and was poised for its steepest weekly gain ​in more than a year as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove demand for safe-haven assets. The dollar index was trading a touch lower by 0.06 per cent at 99.00, still on course for a 1.4 per cent gain this week that would be the most since ​November 2024.

The two-year yield has jumped 20 bps for the week. Elsewhere, spot gold was steady at $5,078.88 an ounce, ​though it was headed for a 3.7 per cent weekly fall as rising yields and a stronger dollar eclipsed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal.

Investor sentiment improved amid a recovery in global markets and some easing of concerns surrounding geopolitical developments, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We reiterate our cautious stance and advise participants to remain selective while maintaining disciplined risk management when initiating fresh positions."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,752.52 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,153.37 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, after a positive open, the market held positive momentum throughout the day. A bullish candle on daily charts indicates that a pullback formation is likely to continue in the near future, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For traders, 24,600/79,500 and 24,500/79,200 would act as key support zones. Above these levels, the market could continue its positive momentum up to 24,950-25,000/80,500-80,700. On the flip side, below 24,500/79,200, the sentiment could change. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he added.

Given the sharp decline seen earlier, the current bounce should be treated as an initial retracement of the fall. On the upside, immediate overhead resistance is placed around the 25,000–25,100 zone where a strong bearish gap is visible on the daily chart. A sustained move above this zone will be crucial for any meaningful reversal, said Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One.

"On the downside, 24,600–24,500 is seen as immediate support, while 24,300 remains a strong base for the index. Traders are advised to keep a close watch on these levels and plan trades accordingly. While the index remains under pressure, certain themes and sectors have shown relative strength and may continue to outperform," he adds.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank has formed a High Wave candle on the daily charts, a pattern characterised by long upper and lower shadows. This typically signals indecision and highlights a lack of clear directional conviction among market participants at current levels, said By Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"The zone of 59,400–59,500 acts as a key resistance area in the coming sessions. A sustained move above this band could open the door for a meaningful upside extension. On the downside, the region between 58,600-58,500 will serve as a crucial support zone. A decisive break below this level may trigger renewed selling pressure and generate a stronger trending move," he said.

Nifty Bank formed a high wave candle with a small real body and shadows in either direction signaling consolidation with high volatility after the recent sharp decline. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid uncertain global cues and escalating geo-political tension, said Bajaj Broking.

"It is likely to consolidate in the range of 58,000-60,000 in the coming sessions. A breakout or a breakdown will signal the next directional movement. A breakdown below 58,000 on account of escalating geo-political tension will open further downside towards 57,200 levels in the coming week," he adds.