Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 68 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian stock markets are headed for a muted start on Wednesday amid the weakness in the global markets amid the rising uncertainty over the reciprocal tariffs by the US. However, on the domestic front, traders' focus shall be shifting towards India Inc's Q4 earnings in this truncated week.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 67.90 points, or 0.29 per cent, lower at 23,273, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian stocks mirrored the losses in the US stocks and traded mostly in red during the early trade.

On the macro front, India’s Wholesale Inflation (WPI) for March fell to four-month low in February. Investors will be closely tracking the retail inflation (CPI) data to be released on Tuesday, with focus on the key Q4 earnings announcements, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

"We expect positive momentum to continue in the market, on hopes of global trade settlements and softening in US reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile stock/sector specific action could be seen on the back of quarterly results and insights from management commentary," he said.

In the Asian pack, Japan's Nikkei was down 0.65 per cent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng tanked 1.80 per cent in the early trade. South Korean KOSPI and Shanghai Composite also shed half a per cent each. On the other hand, Australia's ASX 200 and New Zealand's DJ were trading in green.

US stocks ended slightly lower on Tuesday as tariff uncertainty stayed high and shares of consumer and healthcare companies eased, while upbeat results from banks provided some support. The Dow Jones fell 155.83 points, or 0.38 per cent, to 40,368.96, the S&P 500 lost 9.34 points, or 0.17 per cent, to 5,396.63 and the Nasdaq shed 8.32 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 16,823.17.

The dollar clung to a small bounce on Wednesday, as investors took a breather from weeks of fairly fierce selling and markets stabilised to wait for progress on US trade talks. The US dollar index , which poked above 100 overnight, hovered just shy of that level at 99.899 in early Asia trade.

Oil prices were flat early on Wednesday, as shifting US trade policies fuelled uncertainty while markets assessed the potential impact of the US-China trade war on economic growth and energy demand. Brent crude futures rose 0.1 per cent, to $64.72 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.1 per cent, to $61.36.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 6,065.78 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,951.60 crore in the previous trading session.

Nifty Outlook

The sentiment appears positive, a hint of fatigue is visible in the index following the steep rally over the past few days. The possibility of a minor pullback on the downside cannot be ruled out, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "Support is placed at 23,300; a decisive break below this level could trigger a correction towards 23,000. Resistance is placed at 23,370 and 23,650," he said.

The market is holding uptrend continuation formation on daily charts, which supports a further uptrend from the current levels. We are of the view that the current market texture is bullish; however, due to temporary overbought conditions, we could see some profit booking at higher levels, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For traders, 23,400/76,900 and 23,500/77,300 would act as key resistance areas, while 23,200-23,135/76,400-76,100 could serve as crucial support zones. However, below 23,135/76,100, the uptrend would be vulnerable. For day traders, as long as it is trading above 23,130/76,100, buying on intraday corrections and selling on rallies would be the ideal strategy," he said.

Nifty Bank Outlook

Bank Nifty formed a bull candle with a bullish gap below its base (51,244-51,863) signaling extension of the positive momentum. Immediate bias remains positive above the Friday’s gap area. Index continues to outperform and has moved above the March 2025 high (52,064) signaling strength and continuation of the up move, said Bajaj Broking Research.

"We expect Bank Nifty to maintain positive bias and head towards 53,000 levels in the coming sessions being the measuring implication of the recent 10 weeks range breakout (48,000-50,500). Immediate bias remains positive and only a breach below Tuesday low (51,863) can lead to some consolidation in the range of 51,000-52,000," it said.

A bullish candle accompanied by a runaway gap on the daily chart, signals accelerating momentum, said Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities. "Nifty Bank now comfortably holds above all key moving averages. The resistance is now placed at 53,900. The positive momentum is expected to remain intact as the index sustains above the crucial support level of 51,800," he said.