Stock market, Trump-Iran deal: Brent below $90, Asian shares rallying; will Sensex, Nifty join the party?

Stock markets across Asia surged, with Korea's Kospi soaring nearly 8 per cent on optimism over the US decision to not to go ahead with the planned strikes on Iran, with the US President Donald Trump suggesting discussions over the Iran deal and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved. The announcement sent Brent futures below $90 a barrel level. A strong start to Friday's session in India is likely, said analysts but they warned that a formal agreement is still pending and any upmove may attract profit booking.

Kospi climbed 7.66 per cent to 8,358.33. Japan's Nikkei was up 3.77 per cent at 66,640. Markets across Hong Kong and mainland China advanced 1.3-1.6 per cent each. Brent futures for August delivery stood at $89.30 per barrel, down 1.19 per cent. Indian stocks may take cue.

"Indian equities are poised for a strong gap-up opening today, with GIFT Nifty indicating a start around the 23,400 zone, supported by a sharp improvement in global risk sentiment, cooling crude oil prices, and a broad-based rally across major international markets,"  Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.  

Hariprasad said the fresh development on the Iran war front significantly reduced geopolitical risk premiums that had been weighing on global equities and energy markets over the past week.

Trump in a Truth Social post overnight said: "Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening."

Market expert Ajay Bagga has doubts. In a post on X, he said from March 23rd to June 11th, Trump has claimed an imminent Iran deal 39 times so far.

"All 39 times Iran has denied a deal . Markets hoping this time Trump is right," he said. 

While a formal agreement is still pending, market participants will closely watch whether the easing geopolitical backdrop can trigger a meaningful turnaround in foreign portfolio flows, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealth-tech firm.

Ponmudi said persistent FPI selling over recent months has remained one of the key factors capping a sustained recovery in Indian equities.  

"For India, the most significant macro development is the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Brent crude has corrected nearly 4%, easing concerns around imported inflation, the current account deficit, and rupee stability. While the global setup has turned positive, investors should remain watchful of profit booking at higher levels after the recent volatility. The market is likely to focus on whether today's optimism translates into sustained institutional buying rather than a short-term relief rally," Hariprasad said.