Suzlon Energy, Inox Wind: Share price targets, Q1 results preview

Ahead of the June quarter results, Systematix Institutional Equities has maintained a Buy rating on Suzlon Energy Ltd and Inox Wind Ltd, with share price targets of Rs 71 and Rs 109, respectively. The brokerage said it expects Suzlon to lead execution in Q1 and sees both companies delivering a steady 1QFY27 performance, supported by continued project execution.

Systematix said the quarter is likely to reflect normal seasonality, with Q1 and Q2 historically remaining relatively weaker periods. Companies in the sector typically execute only about 30-35 per cent of their full-year potential in the first half of the financial year. It expects Suzlon and Inox Wind to post combined revenue growth of 17 per cent year-on-year (YoY) and Ebitda growth of 14 per cent YoY, with consolidated Ebitda and PAT margins averaging about 20 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively, in Q1FY27E.

For Inox Wind, Systematix expects Q1FY27 consolidated revenue of Rs 900 crore, up 9 per cent YoY but down 28 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ). The estimate is based on execution of about 170MW during the quarter, implying 16 per cent YoY growth and a 43 per cent QoQ decline, which it attributed to seasonality and near-term execution constraints. Consolidated Ebitda, excluding other income, is seen at Rs 190 crore, up 3 per cent YoY but down 5 per cent quarter-on-quarter, with an implied Ebitda margin of about 21 per cent.

The brokerage said the key monitorable for Inox Wind remains execution, particularly commissioning momentum and the availability of critical ECS components.

For Suzlon Energy, Systematix expects Q1FY27 consolidated revenue of Rs 3,740 crore, up 19 per cent YoY but down 32 per cent QoQ, based on 530MW order execution during the quarter. This would represent a 19 per cent YoY increase and a 36 per cent QoQ decline in execution. Consolidated Ebitdais estimated at around Rs 700 crore, up 17 per cent YoY but down 27 per cent QoQ, with an implied Ebitda margin of 18.7 per cent.

Systematix said Suzlon remains ahead of peers in terms of deliveries. It also highlighted the recent 105MW domestic order from Sunsure Energy for the supply of S175 (5.0MW) WTGs as an important milestone for the company's higher-capacity turbine platform. In addition, Suzlon has secured cumulative orders of 700MW during Q1FY27, taking its current order book to about 5,867MW, net of the brokerage's estimated supplies for the quarter.

On the industry, Systematix said India's wind sector remains structurally positive, though Q1FY27 capacity addition of about 1.35GW, down 18 per cent YoY and 15 per cent QoQ, points to a softer commissioning cycle and rising execution bottlenecks. It said the next phase of OEM performance will depend less on headline order inflows and more on delivery pace, ECS availability, evacuation readiness and the ability to convert hybrid and FDRE demand into commissioned capacity.