Tata Power, Suzlon Energy, BHEL, NTPC: Q3 results preview

In its earnings preview note on utilities, JM Financial said energy generation and peak demand moderated in the December quarter, due to early winter and economic slowdown. Merchant tariffs also eased, reflecting subdued power demand. Among power companies, this brokerage expects SJVN Ltd to show good Q3 show due to higher water levels in reservoirs, leading to better generation. Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) and Suzlon Energy Ltd are expected to report healthy performance, driven by strong order books, pick-up in execution and operating leverage.

The domestic brokerage expects BHEL’s net revenue to rise 25 per cent YoY driven by robust order book in power segments and pick-up in execution. It sees BHEL's Q3 profit at Rs 145 crore, up 140 per cent YoY. Ebitda margin is seen at 4.6 per cent against 3.9 per cent YoY.

Suzlon Energy's net revenue is seen increasing at least 87 per cent YoY to Rs 2,915 crore on account of higher dispatches. PAT for Suzlon Energy is seen surging 59 per cent to Rs 322.20 crore from Rs 203 crore YoY. Ebitda margin is seen at 14 per cent from 16 per cent YoY.

JSW Energy’s revenue is expected to rise 10 per cent YoY due to higher thermal generation in Q3FY25, thanks to contribution from Ind-Barath Plant. PAT is seen doubling to Rs 469.60 crore.

NTPC is expected to report net sales of Rs 45,100 crore in Q3FY25, up 5 per cent YoY. Ebitda is estimated at Rs 11,900 crore, up 5 per cent YoY supported by higher generation and stable fuel cost. That said, PAT for NTPC is seen falling 4 per cent to Rs 4,993.90 crore.

"We expect Power Grid to report a flat quarter with net sales at Rs 11,600 crore, and Ebitda margin of 87 per cent. CESC is expected to report 16 per cent YoY increase in revenue due to higher generation
and higher demand in its distribution circle," JM Financial said.

It sees NHPC reporting sales of Rs 2,100 crore, up 3 per cent YoY with Ebitda margin of 51 per cent. SJVN sales are expected to increase 8 per cent YoY, due to significantly higher hydro power generation.

Among others, Tata Power’s net sales are seen flattish, with expansion in Ebitda margin to 21.7 per cent from 16.5 per cent on 14 per cent decline in fuel cost. PAT is seen rising 17 per cent to Rs 1,254 crore from Rs 1,076.10 crore YoY.

"Coal India is expected to report revenue of Rs 35,100 crore (down 3 per cent YoY) due to lower dispatches. However, Ebitda is expected to be Rs 8,700 crore (down 14 per cent YoY). Torrent Power may report a flattish quarter with revenue of Rs 6,200 crore, down 2 per cemt YoY due to lower generation in their gas-fired plants," JM said.

JM Financial suggested 'Buy' ratings on all stocks under its coverage, except SJVN.