"The deal is a typical strategic buyout deal, where TCS shall help Porsche cut costs, providing upfront payment and in turn boosting its revenue and getting access to Porsche and other auto OEMs as clients. We find the deal incrementally positive for TCS. We await the deal closure to make any changes to our estimates. Retain 'BUY' with a target of Rs 3,000, valuing at 18x FY28 PE," Nuvama said.
The brokerage said the acquisition was similar to HCL Technologies Ltd's acquisition of Volvo-IT in 2016 and the recent acquisition of Randstad-IT by LTM. It said such transactions, usually done at inexpensive valuations, provide a one-time boost to top line, which it pegged at 3 per cent to FY28 revenue, while also opening doors to new clients in the region.
"The relationship with the seller, in these deals, is also long-term beneficial since it involves helping the client cut costs, when it is facing cost pressure. Our only concern remains Porsche's own financial health, given the overhang of auto cycle and competition from Chinese players. Overall, we find the deal as a much better use of cash than distributing the same through dividend/buyback," Nuvama said.
MHP derives 60 per cent of its revenue from external clients, including various automotive OEMs, and 40 per cent from Porsche. For that internal revenue of about 250 million euros to 300 million euros, TCS has signed a five-year strategic partnership with Porsche worth 1.25 billion euros, under which it will collaborate on scaling up AI across engineering, manufacturing, operations and customer experience. TCS will also establish a dedicated AI Mobility Centre of Excellence.
Nuvama said TCS would look to make up the remaining roughly 450 million euros of revenue from external clients and grow it using its own capabilities and sales engine. It said MHP was likely to operate at low-to-mid single-digit margins, largely because a large part of its workforce is based in the US and Europe. As a result, the acquisition is likely to dilute margins for at least the first two years, though the brokerage said the relatively inexpensive valuation should keep it EPS neutral overall.
Overall, Nuvama said the MHP acquisition was a win-win deal for TCS, with an expected top-line boost, long-term access to Porsche and other automotive clients, and a transaction structure that it viewed as a better use of cash than a dividend or buyback, even as it flagged concerns over Porsche's financial health amid the auto cycle overhang and competition from Chinese players.