‘India has to de-risk from both China and the US’: Sanjaya Baru on the country’s external dependencies

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have upended all supply chains, pushing the global economy into a turmoil, India has a lesson to learn. It has to de-risk itself from dependencies on countries like the US and China.

Sanjaya Baru, chairman of the board of trustees, Forum for National Security Studies, and Centre for Aerospace & Strategic Studies in an opinion piece for The Indian Express, wrote that India must take a leaf out from the pages of history and de-risk from both China and the US.

His remarks come amid the looming threat of 100 per cent US tariffs on Indian goods, thanks to the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026 that the US Congress has voted in favour of overwhelmingly. India is not completely caught unawares either – the BRICS Summit that had both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in attendance is proof of that.

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Baru said that while many analysts have suggested a “de-Americanisation” of Indian foreign policy, it can’t quite be attained since the US is an important market for Indian exports of goods and services. On top of that, people-to-people and business-to-business connection between the two countries is strong. The defence relationship is important too but India increasingly has more options.

It is possible that India could end all ‘strategic’ dependence on the US because the element of trust has been wiped off with Trump’s presidency. But economic links is possible even if there is no trust between two countries – for example, the US and China.

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Washington had famously said that they are de-risking and diversifying, not decoupling from China, “Indeed, that is precisely what India has been trying to do with respect to all her external dependencies – defence, energy, trade and manpower. Over the past year, the Indian strategy has been one of “de-risking” from the United States. The US seeks to de-risk from China. India has to de-risk from both China and the US,” wrote Baru.

India will also have to deal with the twin challenge of managing a power in decline and another on the rise, he said. It had happened in the past too, with Britain declining and the US rising. But in that, the world was still dealing with a “hegemonic West”, he said.

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“The 21st-century US is no 20th-century Britain. It will continue to assert its dominance – military, technological and economic. However, the world, too, has changed. Countries like China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, Iran and indeed, even the European Union, Japan and Southeast Asian nations will defend their interests and territories. All of them will certainly seek to de-risk from the US. Some, like India, will also seek to de-risk from China. But none of them can afford to decouple from either,” he wrote.