TMPV or TMCV shares: Which Tata Motors stock has higher upside potential?

Select brokerages continue to remain positive on both Tata Motors Ltd (Commercial Vehicles) or TMCV and Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd (TMPV) shares.

For TMCV, Nuvama Institutional Equities expects FY27 domestic volume growth in the high single digits. The brokerage forecasts double-digit EBITDA margins through the cycle, with expansion into the teens during the upcycle. It also expects the company to increase its domestic commercial vehicle market share to 40 per cent from 36 per cent in FY26, driven by gains across SCV, ILCV, passenger and HCV segments.

Following the Iveco acquisition in Q2 FY27, Nuvama said the focus will shift to cross-selling opportunities, sourcing efficiencies and R&D synergies.

"We are building in 7 per cent volume CAGR over FY26–28E, led by 48 per cent CAGR in exports owing to a large order of ~70,000 units from Indonesia," it added.

The brokerage retained its 'BUY' rating with an unchanged 12-month target price of Rs 480 per share, implying an upside potential of 11.11 per cent from Thursday's closing price of Rs 432.

Separately, YES Securities maintained its 'Add' rating on TMCV, expecting market share gains through product interventions across the SCV, LCV, ICV, HCV and bus segments.

"Digital initiatives focused on improving fleet uptime, service quality, customer profitability and retention with fleet edge 2.0, the next-gen AI-led version, is expected to be launched soon," it stated.

The brokerage kept its target price unchanged at Rs 462, indicating an upside potential of 6.94 per cent.

For TMPV, Nuvama expects passenger vehicle volumes to grow at a 15 per cent CAGR over FY26–31E, helping the company gain 5–6 percentage points in market share to around 20 per cent.

The brokerage also expects TMPV's product portfolio to expand to 15 nameplates by FY31, supported by six new launches.

"We build in revenue/EBITDA CAGR for India PV at 21 per cent/39 per cent over FY26–28E driven by robust volumes, PLI benefits and better mix. Retain 'BUY' with a SotP-based TP of Rs 470/share (unchanged) on 11x/2x EV/EBITDA for India PV/JLR and value of investments at Rs 67/share," Nuvama stated.

Its target price of Rs 470 implies an upside potential of 33.07 per cent from Thursday's closing price of Rs 353.20.

YES Securities also remained constructive on TMPV.

"The Indian PV industry is expected to grow to ~64 lakh units by FY31, driven by steady 6–7 per cent CAGR, premiumisation, and strong SUV demand, with SUVs contributing over 60 per cent of volumes and rising alternative fuel adoption pushing EV and CNG penetration beyond 45 per cent."

"EV cost optimisation, and improving brand perception, TMPV is targeting FY31 revenues of Rs 1.4 lakh crore with 10 per cent EBITDA margins, underpinned by a stronger mix, operating leverage, and sustained free cash flow generation. Our consol EPS remained unchanged as we maintain ADD with SOTP-based TP of Rs 405," YES Securities added.

The brokerage's target price suggests an upside potential of 14.67 per cent.