Waaree Energies, Premier Energies: Geojit flags oversupply risk but sees upside; target prices

According to a latest sector note from Geojit Financial Services, the domestic solar manufacturing ecosystem is scaling up aggressively, yet this rapid expansion is creating a structural oversupply in modules that could squeeze pricing and margins.

Despite this, Geojit has issued a ‘Buy’ recommendation for industry majors Waaree Energies Ltd and Premier Energies Ltd.

By FY26, India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is projected to reach 109-130 GW, far outstripping the expected annual installations of 45-50 GW, the brokerage highlighted.

“A modules-only business model is increasingly vulnerable to oversupply, policy shifts, tender cyclicality, and margin compression,” Geojit said. 

To survive, Geojit suggested that scale alone is no longer enough; companies must now capture value across the broader renewable chain to stabilize their earnings.

Waaree Energies

The brokerage said that Waaree “is executing a comprehensive ‘Waaree 2.0’ strategy, combining deep backward integration across the polysilicon-ingot-wafer-cell-module chain and horizontal expansion into EPC, battery storage, inverters, transformers, renewable infrastructure, and green hydrogen.”

Geojit believes Waaree's diverse order book and global presence will help it navigate module oversupply while capturing value across the energy transition ecosystem. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 3,650 for the stock.

Premier Energies

By balancing its expansion across cells and modules and selectively dipping into battery energy storage and inverters, “Premier illustrates how mid-to-large manufacturers can transition beyond a manufacturing-only model while managing execution and capital-intensity risks,” the brokerage said.

The brokerage has a ‘Buy’ call on Premier Energies stock, with a target price of Rs 1,066 per share.

“Power demand is projected to grow at ~5.8% CAGR through FY30, driven by infrastructure capex, data centres, electrification, and improvements in distribution sector health,” Geojit said.