Tata Steel, Hindalco, SAIL, Coal India: Axis recommends ‘buy on dips’ amid geopolitical tensions; target prices

Rising geopolitical tensions in West Asia are reshaping the global metals and mining sector, but brokerage Axis Securities sees the disruption as an opportunity for the sector, advising investors to use any correction as a buying opportunity on major industry players such as Tata Steel Ltd, Coal India Ltd, Hindalco Industries Ltd, APL Apollo Tubes Ltd and others.

"Overall, we remain constructive on the metals sector as a whole and recommend a 'buy on dips' strategy as demand drivers," the broking said, noting that along with supply constraints, provide support to nonferrous metals, while safeguard duty and robust domestic steel demand favour Indian steel mills.

Axis said that hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices have risen by 14% and 7%, respectively, quarter over quarter, “while coking coal and iron ore prices have risen by only 2% over the
same period.”

Axis noted that the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran has brought maritime traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill. “Disrupting China’s steel exports to a region that accounted for 14% of its total finished steel export volume in CY25,” it said.

Back home, India's steel production machinery continues to hum loudly, growing 11.2% year-on-year between April 2025 and February 2026. But the export pipeline could come under immediate pressure, given that the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey are key buyers, Axis noted.

Axis has a 'Buy' rating on Tata Steel with a target price of Rs 220, while assigning a ‘Hold’ to Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) with a target of Rs 160. On the non-ferrous front, Axis said Hindalco and National Aluminium Company Ltd (NALCO) aren't entirely immune to the macro chaos. The brokerage has a ‘Hold’ stance on both Hindalco and NALCO, with target prices set at Rs 1,050 and Rs 390, respectively.

Axis assigned a ‘Buy’ rating on APL Apollo Tubes and Coal India stock, with a target pice of Rs 2,250 and Rs 500, respectively.

Axis expects Tata Steel and SAIL to experience a relatively limited impact on their upstream steel production, though certain downstream processes could be hit. While Tata Steel's European operations might feel the sting of rising gas prices

“JSW Steel: High risk of operational downtime at specific plants, especially at JSW
Steel Coated Products,” Axis said. 

The brokerage also said that Jindal Stainless is currently operating at reduced capacity due to the high reliance of stainless steel refining on industrial gases, indicating potential shipment delays.