Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 30 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open with a muted tone, with a positive bias, on Monday as shall investors react to quarterly business updates from key ​lenders and companies, while crude oil prices remained below $72 per ‌barrel. Traders will be keenly tracking India Inc's earnings for June quarter and updates on the progress of Monsoon.

Indian equities are expected to maintain a gradual uptrend, supported by favourable global cues and easing concerns over the US interest rate outlook. The ongoing June-quarter business updates are likely to drive stock-specific action, while investors will closely monitor the southwest monsoon, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 30.20 points, or 0.12 per cent, up at 24,322.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian share markets were mostly firmer on Monday. Nikkei tanked more than a per cent, while KOSPI dropped over 2 per cent. Hang Seng was seen in green.

US stocks remained shut on Friday, July 03, while the major three indices ended mixed on Thursday. Investors in this week shall seek clues about the likelihood of impending interest-rate hikes and early signs of a pivotal earnings season ​as they gauge the strength of the US stock market's rally.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
Oil prices promised relief from inflationary pressures as OPEC+ also agreed a further increase in output targets from August. Brent slipped 0.6 per cent to near four-month lows at $71.70 a barrel and US crude lost 0.5 per cent to $68.38. In currency markets, the dollar index had steadied at 100.880 after dipping last week. In commodity markets, gold was little moved at $4,177 an ounce.

The market continues to benefit from a favourable domestic macroeconomic backdrop, improving earnings visibility, and expectations of a more supportive global liquidity environment. The earnings season is likely to take centre stage, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Investors should continue to focus on fundamentally strong companies."
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,355.33 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned sellers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,953.89 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have pumped in Rs 708 crore in the Indian equity markets for the first three session on July 2026.

FPIs sitting on big profits have been selling in South Korea and Taiwan. This is persuading FIIs to again consider India despite its relative weak earnings.  It can be safely concluded that the period of relentless FPI selling is over. But it may take some time for FPIs to become sustained buyers in India, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The market once again took support and reversed sharply. It has formed a bullish candle on weekly charts and is also holding a higher bottom formation, which is largely positive. The short-term market texture is positive, but for traders, the ideal strategy would be to buy on  dips and sell on rallies, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, 24,150/77,300 and 24,000/76,700 would act as key support zones, while 24,500-24,700/78,400-79,000 would be key resistance areas for the bulls. However, below 24,000/76,700, market sentiment could change. A fall below 24,000/76,700 could retest levels of 23,800-23,750/76,100-75,900," he added.

77,000–77,100 will act as an immediate support zone for Sensex. As long as the index sustains above this level, the undertone is likely to remain positive and a move towards 78,400–78,500 cannot be ruled out. Any decisive breach below 77,000 may trigger fresh profit booking and lead to short-term consolidation, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

Adopting a buy the dips approach to key support can be considered. The 24,180-24,100 zone, which was a prior resistance, is an immediate support cluster, followed by a stronger support in the 23,850-23,800 band. On the flips side, the 24,400-24,450 zone is an immediate resistance, followed by a stronger hurdle across the 24,550-24,600 zone, said Hitesh Rathi, Technical Analyst -Equity & Derivatives at Angel One.

Adding to the positive sentiment, India VIX declined nearly 9 per cent during the week to close below the 12 mark, signalling easing volatility and creating a favourable environment for the ongoing upward momentum, said Nilesh Jain, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse.

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank formed a sizeable bearish candle on the daily chart. It has entered the Weakening quadrant on the Relative Rotation Graph, indicating fading momentum despite maintaining relative strength against the broader market. The RSI continues to move sideways, reinforcing the ongoing consolidation phase, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"The immediate resistance for Nifty Bank is placed in the 58,400-58,500 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 58900, followed by 59,300 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500-57,400 zone," he added.

Nifty formed a small bearish candle which remained contained inside previous session range signalling consolidation amid stock specific action around the 58,000 levels. Going ahead, a move above last week high of 58,400 will open further upside towards 59,200 and 60,000 level in the coming weeks, said Bajaj Broking.

"Failure to move above last week's high is likely to keep the index consolidating within the 57,000–58,400 range. The recent low and the previous gap area placed around the 57,000-56,800 marks, is the key support area from short term perspective. The overall bias remains positive; hence the breather should be used to accumulate quality banking stocks in staggered manner," it adds.