Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 350 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised to open lower on Thursday, tracking weakness across broader Asian peers, after US President Donald ​Trump stopped short of outlining a roadmap to end ‌the Iran war. Trump's comments intensified near-term geopolitical anxiety and drove crude oil prices higher.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 347.10 points, or 1.52 per cent, up at 22,453, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian stocks fell after the US ​said their 'core strategic objectives' in the Iran war were nearing completion. KOSPI tanked nearly 3.5 per cent, while Nikkei was down nearly 2 per cent. Hang Seng fell by almost a per cent.

Indian markets are set to open on a cautiously note, attempting to build on the previous session’s rebound driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tentative signs of de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict. The shift helped cool crude oil prices, offering immediate relief to global markets and lifting investor sentiment, said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.

Wall Street ended higher on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump suggested ‌an end to the Middle East conflict could be close. The S&P 500 climbed 0.72 per cent to end the session at 6,575.32 points. The Nasdaq gained 1.16 per cent to 21,840.95 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48 per cent to 46,565.74 points.

The US dollar has been the haven of choice among investors during the tumult and the greenback ⁠rose ​against most currencies after the speech. The dollar index climbed to a high of 99.925 after the ​speech. Bitcoin was down more than a per cent, slipping below $67,000. Gold prices reversed course to slip ‌more than 1 per cent on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak.

The Indian rupee is poised to open sharply higher on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India rolled out a fresh set of measures to ​clamp down on speculative activity, with traders expecting chunky dollar sales as ‌ positions are unwound. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.65-92.7 range versus the dollar, having settled at 94.83 on Monday.

Oil prices climbed on Thursday after President ​Donald Trump said the United States would continue ‌to attack Iran, including energy and oil targets over the next few weeks, and did not commit to a specific timeline to ​end the war. Brent crude futures rose 4.8 per cent, ​to $106.04 a barrel, while US West Texas ⁠Intermediate crude futures were 4.2 per cent, to $104.29 per ​barrel.

The recovery was driven by optimism around potential geopolitical de-escalation, which improved global risk appetite. A decline in crude oil prices and bond yields further supported sentiment, particularly for emerging markets, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should monitor crude oil prices and the rupee for cues on the next directional move."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,331.15 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 7,171.80 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

Technically, the market witnessed some profit booking at higher levels on the backdrop of positive global sentiments. The short-term trend of the market is still on the weaker side. However, due to temporary oversold conditions, we could see a pullback rally from the current levels, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"For traders, 22,500/72,500 and 22,300/72,000 would act as key support zones. As long as the market is above these levels, the pullback move could continue on the higher side, with 22,900–23,000/73,800-74,200 acting as immediate resistance zones for the bulls. The current market is volatile and non-directional. Level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for traders," he added.

Immediate support for Nifty is placed in the 22,500–22,550 range, while resistance is observed between 22,800 and 22,850 levels. The RSI is at 37.08, said Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "While initial signs of recovery are emerging, the RSI remains below the midpoint level of 50, and a sustained move above this threshold would be required to confirm stronger upward momentum."

A positive divergence on the daily RSI also indicates the possibility of short-term bullish momentum. On the upside, resistance is placed at 22,800, above which the index could move towards 23,000 and higher. On the downside, a decisive fall below 22,200 may revive bearish momentum, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a high wave candle with a higher high and a higher low highlighting pullback from oversold territory. It failed to sustain at higher levels. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher crude oil prices, which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"For any meaningful pause in the ongoing downtrend, the index needs to establish a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the daily chart, along with a close above last week's high of 54,150. On the downside, weakness below the psychological 50,000 levels will signal extension of the decline towards 49,200-49,000 levels in the coming sessions," it added.

Nifty Bank formed a small-bodied candle with wicks on both ends on the daily chart, indicating intraday indecision. The immediate support is placed in the 51,100–51,000 zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 50,800, followed by 50,500 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 51,900–52,000 zones is likely to act as an immediate resistance.