Market outlook amid assembly election exit polls 2026 results; Sensex, Nifty levels to watch tomorrow

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the exit poll results on Wednesday evening, as voting for five state elections conclude today. Earlier in the day, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended higher after seeing some profit taking in the afternoon session. Analysts believe the short-term positive outlook looks intact, based on technical charts, but felt domestic and global cues would be keenly tracked. This included any development regarding the West Asia war and the outcome of two-day US Fed policy review later in the day. 

"Markets are expected to react to the domestic political developments, as exit polls after the second phase of state elections are due later this evening. Investor sentiment will be influenced by these outcomes, while the final results next week are likely to add to market volatility on Monday," said Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The BSE Sensex settled the day at 77,496.36, up 609.45 points or 0.79 per cent. Nifty closed the day at 24,177.65, up 181.95 points or 0.76 per cent. Also eyes would be on the outcome of US Federal Reserve's policy review later today. The market would also like to know Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's views on the inflation and growth outlook.

"Markets will react to the outcome of the US Fed meeting in early trade on Thursday. Additionally, exit polls for the West Bengal elections and geopolitical developments will remain on participants’ radar," said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking.

Sunny Agrawal, Head - Fundamental Research at SBI Securities said investors are closely tracking developments around the elections in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Puducherry, with exit polls due later today.

"The final results scheduled for Monday, 4th May. From a global perspective, US Dow futures and European indices are currently trading flat to marginally negative, reflecting a cautious tone," he said.

Sensex outlook
Aakash Shah, Research Analyst, Choice Equity Broking at Sensex said the 30-pack has reclaimed its immediate breakout support zone and formed a bullish recovery candle on daily charts. This move suggests continuation of a pullback rally within a larger consolidation structure, Shah said.

"The immediate support is now placed near 76,900–76,800, followed by stronger base support around 76,500. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near 78,100 – 78,300, while a decisive breakout above this zone may trigger fresh momentum towards higher levels," Shah said.

Shah said the market structure indicates a short-term bullish recovery with improving momentum, but confirmation of a sustained uptrend will require a breakout above resistance levels. Until then, the Sensex may continue to trade in a range with stock-specific action dominating the trend, he said.

Nifty outlook
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said Nifty has moved past the 50-EMA, but failed to sustain above it on a closing basis. That said, it held above the support level of 24,150 on the daily timeframe, De said. 

"The RSI is on the verge of re-entering a bullish crossover on the daily chart. The overall sentiment remains unclear, with the possibility of the trend turning in either direction. Additionally, the BSE monthly expiry could keep the market volatile. Level-wise, 24,150 and 23,900 are likely to act as support, while 24,350 and 24,550 may act as resistance," De said.

Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One said Nifty's price action remained confined within two key short-term moving averages, the 20 DEMA on the lower side and the 50 DEMA, acting as resistance on the higher side. 

"While the overall undertone remains positive, the 24,300–24,350 zone continues to act as an immediate hurdle. A decisive move above this band could push prices towards last week’s high near 24,600 and potentially higher. On the downside, the 20 DEMA along with the psychological level of 24,000 is seen as immediate support, followed by recent lows around 23,800, which remains a crucial pivot," Bhosale said.

Bhosale said as long as these levels hold, any dip is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity.