Nifty Midcap 150 falls over 20% once every 4.2 years: Abakkus study

The Nifty Midcap 150 Index has experienced a decline of more than 20% roughly once every 4.2 years over the past 21 years, highlighting the frequency of sharp corrections in the midcap segment, according to an analysis by Abakkus Mutual Fund.

The analysis, based on the Fall and Recovery Analysis of the Nifty Midcap 150 between April 2005 and August 2026, found that smaller declines have occurred considerably more frequently.

The index fell 5-10% on 17 occasions during the period, with such corrections occurring on average once every 1.2 years. Meanwhile, declines of 10-20% occurred eight times, translating into an average frequency of once every 2.6 years.

More severe corrections, involving a fall of more than 20%, occurred five times in 21 years, or approximately once every 4.2 years. As of August 31, 2026, the Nifty Midcap 150 stood at 23,537, according to the study, and was just 0.01% away from completing a recovery cycle.

₹10,000 investment grows to ₹3 lakh

The study also examined the impact of staying invested through these periods of volatility. An investment of ₹10,000 in the Nifty Midcap 150 TRI in April 2005, held through August 31, 2026, would have grown to ₹3,00,810.

This represented a 17.23% CAGR over the period, according to Abakkus Mutual Fund.

The analysis also highlighted the potential impact of missing some of the index’s strongest trading days. An investor who missed the best five days would have seen terminal wealth fall to ₹2,05,241, compared with ₹3,00,810 for an investor who remained invested.

The corresponding CAGR would have declined to 15.15%, with final wealth more than 31% lower than that of the fully invested investor.

Nifty Midcap 150: Key numbers

Source: Abakkus Mutual Fund internal research.

Missing best 10, 30 or 50 days cuts returns

The difference becomes larger as more of the market’s strongest days are missed. Missing the best 10 days would have reduced the terminal value to ₹1,54,804, with the CAGR falling to 13.65%.

Missing the best 30 days would have brought the investment value down to ₹66,638, corresponding to a 9.26% CAGR. For an investor missing the best 50 days, the terminal value would have fallen to just ₹33,258, with a CAGR of 5.77%.

What the study shows about midcap volatility

The data shows that volatility has been a recurring feature of the Nifty Midcap 150 over the period studied, with declines of varying severity occurring at different intervals. At the same time, the long-term investment illustration shows how the outcome differed substantially depending on whether investors remained invested or missed some of the index’s strongest days.

Abakkus said its analysis covers the Nifty Midcap 150 from April 2005 through August 2026 and is based on its internal research.

The fund house also cautioned that past performance may not be sustained in the future. Its disclosure notes that mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, including the possible loss of principal, and that the information in the release is not intended as investment advice.