The state always owns the future: Tale of money's silent revolution

In the earliest days of trade, money wasn’t any technology.  

Money was trust solidified into metal. From the gold coins stamped under Roman authority to paper notes embossed with royal seals, the story of money has always been about who controls belief. The ledger of civilization, in every era, sat with the state.

When the modern world appeared with telegraphic wires and central banks, the same principle persisted. Trust is public, innovation is private, and the balance between them defines prosperity. 

Now, in 2025, as algorithms whisper promises of infinite decentralization, the real future of money is quietly taking shape.  Not exactly through a crypto revolution, but a state-guided evolution.

From Gold to Algorithms: Lessons in Authority

The idea that technology can outsmart sovereignty isn’t new. Historians recall the free banking era of 19th-century America, when hundreds of private banks issued their own notes. The system collapsed under confusion and fraud until the federal government asserted monetary authority through the creation of the national banking system. The lesson till now has generally been clear: money without a common standard is likely to breed chaos.

Fast forward to the early 21st century, when Bitcoin arrived like a digital mirage promising liberation from central banks. Its founder’s vision of anonymous trust challenged governments to rethink financial control. Yet fifteen years later, the dream remains idealistic rather than institutional. 

Agreed, lots of people have become tremendously wealthy. Yet, to many, Bitcoin’s volatility is an experiment in speculation, not in stability. Even El Salvador’s bold wager to legalize Bitcoin as national tender shows that only around five percent of its transactions occur through it.  A symbolically rebellious small minority rather than a sustainable model. At least as of now.

The Era of Digital Pragmatism

While many ideologues have debated the death of central banking, the world has quietly experienced a more profound transition. Everyday consumers have moved from wallets to apps. In China, Alipay and WeChat Pay revolutionized the way billions transacted, blending convenience with state oversight. These systems still rely on underlying bank deposits. Significant proof that even now change rarely abolishes institutions. It adapts them.

In the United States, fintech pioneers like PayPal, Venmo, and Square crafted digital universes that make payment nearly invisible. Yet, behind every swipe and click lies the infrastructure of regulated banking. Technology has become a skin and not a skeleton. Technology has become an interface that innovates within governance rather than outside it.

The New Pyramid of Digital Money

Across continents, the ecosystem of digital currencies is emerging as a structured triangle:

• CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) serve as public digital anchors, offering citizens a safe, secure counterpart to physical cash.
• Stablecoins, pegged to national currencies, bridge private innovation with official stability — instruments favored by the Trump administration in its push to safeguard dollar dominance.
• Tokenized deposits, representing digitized commercial bank money, form the operational foundation for inter-bank and corporate settlements.

Among global jurisdictions, the United Arab Emirates stands out as the modern laboratory of this layered future. Its approach truly intertwines innovation with oversight, welcoming digital assets within an ecosystem defined by permissioned ledgers - a model blending transparency, regulation, and technological sophistication. There, money is evolving, not escaping.

Global Rivalries on the Digital Frontier

In Beijing, the e-CNY (China’s digital yuan) has reached across borders as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. Designed with BIS collaboration on the m-Bridge project, it bypasses SWIFT and dollar channels. Europe is racing to launch its digital euro to preserve strategic autonomy. Meanwhile, in Washington, the Trump administration’s GENIUS Act promotes the adoption of dollar-pegged stablecoins to prevent erosion of U.S. monetary supremacy.

These are not isolated innovations. These are akin to geopolitical chess moves. Each currency upgrade carries national security implications. Digital payment systems have become instruments of soft power, redefining international relations more quietly than armies ever could.

The Human Story Behind Technology

Every new financial system reflects behavior before code. People crave trust, predictability, and value stability more than anonymity. The same instincts that once led traders to accept stamped coins now shape the modern preference for state-backed digital wallets. The ultimate currency is still belief.  And all belief, as history proves, thrives under public governance.

Even as blockchain-inspired ledgers rise, most successful models remain centralized but permissioned, allowing trusted validators to authenticate value while ensuring accountability. Corporate tokenization, real-time settlement rails, and programmable finance all flourish within frameworks built, not necessarily freed, by regulation.

Thus, the dream of a trustless world has given way to a trust-enhanced one.

While a small minority will continue to believe in a world of parallel currencies beyond the reach of government - that faith, too, may have its paradox. Some early believers may have indeed grown enormously wealthy, just as gold rush pioneers or speculative traders once did. Yet the broader idea of currencies existing outside the state’s purview, answerable to no sovereign authority, may carry unsettling implications.

In essence, allowing decentralized money systems to thrive entirely beyond formal regulation is akin to permitting a few powerful groups to run parallel governments, untethered from accountability, law, or social contract. And history teaches us that such dual sovereignties never coexist peacefully for long. Ultimately, one must yield to be the legitimate one.

The future of money may be digital, but it will still need to bear the signature of authority. Money will evolve with technology, intertwine with geopolitics, and mold new power centers, yet for most of us, it will always remain a public instrument of trust. The revolution was announced in code. The evolution will be written in policy.

As of now, it appears that both concepts seem to be surviving. Time and public opinion will be the ultimate judge. Codes may spark revolutions, but personal assessment is that only constitutions can turn them into lasting currencies.

(Views are personal; the author is Certified board director (MCA - India), ESG Director, Digital Director, Fellow - Board Stewardhsip, Member of UAE Superbrands Council, HBR Advisory Council)