Dhanteras 2025: Missed gold’s run to ₹1.28 lakh? Here’s why ₹1.5 lakh might not be far behind

As India celebrates Dhanteras 2025, gold isn't just sparkling—it’s surging. Prices have soared nearly 63% in the past year, with 10-gram rates hovering near ₹1,28,200, sparking fresh speculation of a ₹1.5 lakh milestone in 2026.

Last year on Dhanteras, gold was priced at ₹78,840 per 10 grams. Today, it’s one of the best-performing global assets, dramatically outpacing equity indices like the Nifty 50. The sharp rise reflects a potent mix of geopolitical tensions, global economic uncertainty, central bank buying, and investor demand for safe-haven assets.

Ventura Securities forecasts strong near-term movement: “Price resistances seen at ₹1,30,000–₹1,35,000; support at ₹1,21,000 / $4,000,” the firm said. “From Dhanteras 2025, the next rally could aim for $5,000 per ounce / ₹1,50,000 per 10 grams in 2026.”

Axis Securities echoed this bullish tone. “MCX Gold has delivered exceptional returns this year,” it said, pointing to rate cut expectations and ongoing economic stress as key catalysts. With the U.S. Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September and two more cuts expected before year-end, the macro backdrop remains favorable.

One expert noted that gold’s surge reflects its growing appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty. The recent record high, they said, underscores investor concern over issues like a potential U.S. government shutdown and broader economic risks. Festive optimism is also playing a role, with expectations of U.S. rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions continuing to support demand.

Institutional support is also playing a crucial role. Motilal Oswal highlighted Asia’s growing position in global gold flows: “Institutional demand and sovereign accumulation are aligned with long-term value creation.” Ventura added that central banks are “hoarding gold at every dip.”