Gold dips on profit booking, long-term bullish case remains intact: Report

Gold prices continued to show near-term weakness on Friday, reflecting profit booking and shifting global cues, even as the broader long-term outlook for the precious metal remains constructive, a report on gold outlook by Tata Mutual Funds noted.

On April 10, gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) edged lower, weighed by a firmer US dollar and lingering uncertainty around the US-Iran ceasefire. MCX gold June futures fell 0.60% to ₹1,52,561 per 10 grams, while silver May futures declined 0.70% to ₹2,42,067 per kg.

The dollar index rose 0.10% to 98.93, making gold more expensive for global buyers. The uptick followed data showing the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rising 2.8% year-on-year in February. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for further direction on interest rate expectations.

Crude oil prices also remained firm, with Brent trading near $97 per barrel and WTI above $98.5, supporting the dollar and adding to pressure on gold. Rising yields and a strong dollar typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold, contributing to the recent correction.

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This weakness aligns with insights from the “View on Gold – Staggered Investment | Bullish in the Long Term (April 2026)” report by Tata Mutual Fund, which highlights that the recent correction is driven by multiple macro headwinds rather than a structural shift. Gold prices saw a sharp decline in March 2026, falling around 7% in India and about 11% in dollar terms, amid a stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and broad-based market sell-offs that forced investors to liquidate positions.

Geopolitical developments have further complicated the near-term narrative. While safe-haven demand typically rises during conflicts, the ongoing US-Iran situation has produced mixed signals. Despite a ceasefire agreement, tensions remain, with markets closely tracking upcoming talks in Islamabad led by US Vice President JD Vance. Elevated energy prices and currency pressures have also limited aggressive gold buying in the short term.

According to Jigar Trivedi of IndusInd Securities, gold prices could soften further towards ₹1,52,000 ahead of the talks. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: “MCX Gold is trading above ₹1,52,500 with gradual buying at lower levels. The interest is visible, but momentum is still not strong enough to confirm a trend. A sustained move above ₹1,53,000 can revive bullish momentum towards ₹1,55,000. On the downside, a break below ₹1,52,000 can drag prices towards ₹1,50,000 and ₹1,48,000. The bias remains mildly positive, though a confirmed breakout is needed to sustain the move higher.”

Investor positioning also reflects a cooling phase. Global gold ETFs have seen significant outflows, hedge funds have cut exposure, and retail participation has moderated—signalling a classic cycle reset after a strong rally.

Despite these near-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. Structural drivers such as high global debt levels, persistent inflation risks, and concerns over fiat currency stability continue to support demand.

Analysts maintain that the current phase represents a short-term distraction rather than a reversal of trend, with gold likely to consolidate in the near term before resuming its longer-term upward trajectory.