Gold price to cross $4,000 by Q2 of next year, says JP Morgan 

JP Morgan predicts that gold prices will cross the $4,000 per ounce threshold by the second quarter of 2026, driven by mounting recession risks, increased US tariffs, and ongoing tensions from the US-China trade war. The bank forecasts an average gold price of $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025, with a possibility of exceeding $4,000 earlier if demand outpaces expectations.

Spot gold has risen 29% this year, reaching $3,500 per ounce for the first time on April 22. Goldman Sachs recently adjusted its 2025 year-end gold forecast from $3,300 to $3,700 per ounce, with scenarios where prices could approach $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 .

According to JP Morgan, "Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year." However, the bank warns of a bearish scenario if central bank demand declines unexpectedly or if the US economy shows resilience against tariffs, which may lead to a proactive Federal Reserve combating inflation risks.

The analysts noted, "More materially bearish would be a scenario where US economic growth remains extremely resilient to tariffs allowing the Fed to turn much more proactive in fighting inflation risks, prompting markets to price in hikes even before worrying inflation actually arrives." Such developments could suppress gold price advancements .

JP Morgan also projects short-term challenges for silver due to uncertainties in industrial demand. Despite these challenges, a "catch-up window" is anticipated to open in the latter half of 2025, with silver prices predicted to rise towards $39 per ounce by the end of 2025.

As gold prices continue their upward trajectory, investor and central bank demand are crucial in supporting these forecasts, while potential shifts in economic conditions pose significant risks to these projections.