Silver steadies at Rs 1.55 lakh as rate-cut hopes fade; ETFs continue to outperform physical metal 

Silver prices edged higher in early trade on Wednesday, November 19, staging a modest recovery after two consecutive sessions of weakness. Gold also posted slight gains, though both metals continued to move cautiously as expectations of a near-term US interest rate cut faded. 

On MCX, December gold futures inched up by Rs 160, or 0.13%, to Rs 1,22,751 per 10 grams. Silver futures moved in tandem, rising Rs 700, or 0.45%, to Rs 1,55,344 per kilogram.

With almost six weeks of limited economic data, markets are now focused on the delayed US jobs report due tomorrow, hoping it will offer clearer direction. 

Amid this uncertain backdrop, a new outlook from Emkay Wealth Management has provided sharper clarity on silver’s trajectory. The firm expects the metal to regain momentum, forecasting a move toward $52–53 per ounce, with potential upside targets of $58 and $62 over the next year. Silver currently trades around $48.80, following a mild correction triggered by profit-taking and improved sentiment after the easing of US–China restrictions on key minerals.

Technically, Emkay notes that silver has built strong support at $47.60, reinforced by deeper levels at $45.60 and $42.00. These zones are expected to limit severe downside risk. However, given silver’s high volatility, the firm recommends treating new positions as tactical, with a 6–12 month horizon and clearly defined exit points.

The report also highlights a compelling investment trend: silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and fund-of-funds (FoFs) have outperformed physical silver over the past three years. Their superior liquidity, efficient tracking, and professional management have helped them generate more consistent and competitive returns, making them attractive vehicles for investors seeking exposure without the logistical challenges of holding physical metal.

Despite short-term fluctuations, Emkay maintains a constructive long-term view on silver. Industrial demand continues to rise, particularly from renewable energy applications such as solar panels, where silver remains essential. Additionally, growing consumption in electronics, electric vehicles, and battery manufacturing is tightening supply at a time when mining production has not kept pace. These structural drivers, the firm argues, offer a strong foundation that should support silver prices even through periods of market volatility.

Silver ETFs vs Physical Silver investment

As of October 31, 2025, most Silver ETFs had already posted exceptional one-year gains—ICICI Prudential Silver ETF and Nippon India Silver ETF were up over 50%, marginally outperforming physical silver, which delivered around 49%. Their shorter-duration performance also impressed, with three- to six-month returns ranging between 34–56%, reflecting the depth of the rally. At that point, Nippon India Silver ETF topped the category with an AUM of ₹15,284 crore, ahead of ICICI Prudential at ₹9,481 crore.

By mid-November 2025, these strong trends broadly held, although the category experienced a brief pause due to global price volatility. One-year returns for the leading ETFs remained near the 50% mark, with slight softening in the one-month performance as silver corrected from recent highs. Nonetheless, both Nippon India and ICICI Prudential retained their dominance in terms of AUM, signalling continued investor confidence despite the short-term dip.

Silver-focused investment schemes have shown a wide dispersion in performance across time frames, highlighting how different strategies and fund structures respond to market cycles. Over the past month, although returns were negative across the category, DSP Silver ETF FoF – Direct Plan, Kotak Silver ETF FoF – Direct Plan, and Tata Silver ETF stood out by limiting downside better than peers. This short-term dip reflects recent volatility in global precious metals, driven by shifting expectations around US interest rates and currency movements.

Across the six-month horizon, momentum becomes significantly more evident. Tata Silver ETF, ICICI Prudential Silver ETF, and DSP Silver ETF delivered exceptional gains, all exceeding 60%. These strong returns underline the sustained rally in silver prices supported by industrial demand, especially from electronics and renewable energy segments.

The one-year leaders—HDFC Silver ETF, ICICI Prudential Silver ETF, and Aditya Birla Sun Life Silver ETF—demonstrate the consistency of larger, well-managed ETFs during prolonged commodity uptrends. Their near-identical performance reflects broad-based participation in the silver rally.

Over three years, the best performers—DSP Silver ETF, HDFC Silver ETF FoF, and Nippon India Silver ETF—show steady long-term compounding despite intermittent volatility. Their strong multi-year returns highlight silver’s role as both an industrial metal and a defensive asset during economic uncertainty.

Top 3 Funds by Performance

> 1-Month – Best Performers Rank Fund Return (%) 1 DSP Silver ETF FoF –
Direct Plan -6.77 2 Kotak Silver ETF FoF – Direct Plan -6.84 3 Tata
Silver ETF -7.75

(Note: All funds show negative 1-month returns; these are the least
negative.)

> 6-Month – Best Performers Rank Fund Return (%) 1 Tata Silver ETF
61.83 2 ICICI Prudential Silver ETF 60.11 3 DSP Silver ETF 60.09

> 1-Year – Best Performers Rank Fund Return (%) 1 HDFC Silver ETF 70.34
2 ICICI Prudential Silver ETF 69.75 3 Aditya Birla Sun Life Silver ETF
69.72

> 3-Year – Best Performers Rank Fund Return (%) 1 DSP Silver ETF 33.89
2 HDFC Silver ETF FoF – Direct Plan 33.84 3 Nippon India Silver ETF
33.74