Will silver finally shatter its 45-year ceiling in 2025? A CFA decodes the surge

Silver is knocking on the door of history again. After a blistering 17% surge this month, silver prices are now hovering near $47/oz, just shy of their all-time highs from 1980 and 2011. 

The trajectory looks eerily familiar but this time, the reasons behind the rally may be fundamentally stronger.

In a LinkedIn post, Vaibhav Jain, CFA, CMT, draws a sharp contrast between silver's three epic price spikes over the last five decades, asking a compelling question: "Will Silver be 3rd time lucky?"

The chart he shared—shown above—shows three towering peaks:

1980, driven by the infamous Hunt Brothers’ attempt to corner the market, which sent silver from $6 to $50 before a regulatory crackdown crushed it.

2011, when post-2008 money printing, Eurozone crisis, and inflation fears pushed it to $49 before a sharp reversal.

2025, now—fueled by a different cocktail of forces.

“Each silver rally reflects its era’s fears & opportunities,” Jain writes.

Here’s how the current rally stacks up:

• Industrial demand is soaring—Silver is essential for solar panels, EV batteries, and electronics, all of which are core to the global green energy transition.
• Mine supply is shrinking, and production costs are rising.
• Central banks are buying gold aggressively, and some of that spillover is flowing into silver as a secondary safe-haven hedge.
• A weakening dollar and looming rate cuts are boosting investor appetite for hard assets.

And then there’s the chart itself.

Jain points out a classic “cup-and-handle” formation on silver’s long-term chart—a bullish technical pattern rarely seen at such macro levels. Even more stunning: silver is breaking through a 45-year resistance line, a level it failed to sustain in both previous rallies.

“Technically, this could be the most powerful setup in decades,” Jain notes. “If it breaks out, silver could potentially double in the coming years.”

Silver’s “split personality” as both a precious metal and an industrial one makes it unusually volatile—but also uniquely positioned. When markets soar, it rallies on demand. When markets fear, it rallies on safety.

As Jain puts it: “It dances to both tunes.”

If history is any guide, this third attempt at breaking the $50 barrier may not just be another spike—it could be the beginning of a secular breakout.