Gold price could fall below $3,000 per ounce in short term; here's why

Gold price today:  Citi has revised its short-term and long-term gold price forecasts, predicting a decrease to under $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026. This adjustment is attributed to waning investment demand and an improving global growth outlook. In its most recent note, Citi reduced its 0-3 month and 6-12 month gold price targets from $3,500 to $3,300 and from $3,000 to $2,800 per ounce, respectively. Gold prices are expected to consolidate between $3,100-$3,500 per ounce in the third quarter, with a downward trend anticipated thereafter due to changes in geopolitical risks, U.S. tariff policies, and budget concerns.

Citi also outlined scenarios for gold prices, stating that in a bullish case, prices could surpass $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter, driven by increased hedging and investment demand amid U.S. economic and geopolitical tensions. Conversely, in a bearish scenario, prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce as tariff disputes resolve and geopolitical risks diminish.

Despite these potential extremes, Citi assigned only a 20% probability to its bullish and bearish projections. "We see investment demand for gold abating in late 2025 and 2026, as ultimately, we see the President Trump popularity and US growth 'put' kicking in, especially as the US mid-terms come into focus," Citi remarked in its analysis.

While gold's outlook remains cautious, Citi projects a more favourable trajectory for silver, anticipating prices to rise to $40 per ounce within the next 6-12 months due to tightening availability and strong demand. In a bullish scenario, silver could reach $46 per ounce by the third quarter of 2025, spurred by a resolution to the U.S.-China trade war and a hawkish Federal Reserve policy.

Meanwhile, in the domestic market, gold prices were trading at Rs 99646, up by Rs 108 on MCX today. The gold rate ended at Rs 99,541 on June 17.