Gold price up 47% in 2025, hit record high today: Where's the yellow metal headed?

Gold price on Tuesday hit a record high amid rising concerns over a potential US government services shutdown. US dollar was also trading lower on weak economic data, ballooning fiscal deficits and expectations of interest rate cuts in Federal Reserve's October meeting this year.

The US dollar index has tumbled nearly 10% this year, its sharpest decline since 2017. The index, which touched a three-year high of 110.18 this year, was now trading at 97 today. On the other hand, gold price on MCX has risen over 47% this year. Gold price hit a peak of Rs 1,16,850 on MCX today.

On the global front, price of the yellow metal surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first ever. This signals a huge 45% rise since the start of the year. Gold has always been a safe-haven asset when equity markets have underperformed.

Darshan Desai, CEO - Aspect Bullion & Refinery said, "Gold prices surged past $3,850 an ounce, hitting new record highs amid rising concerns over a potential US government services shutdown. A recent meeting between key stakeholders ended without progress, fueling uncertainty. The looming shutdown threatens to delay critical economic data, including Friday’s US jobs report, potentially heightening market volatility and boosting demand for safe-haven assets. Gold is on track for its third consecutive quarterly gain, supported by ETF holdings climbing to their highest levels since 2022. Investors are also pricing in a weaker jobs report, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate cut at its upcoming meeting on October 29."

Ajit Mishra, SVP- Research, Religare Broking said, "Gold has climbed to a fresh record high as investors turn to the safe-haven asset, driven by mounting expectations of US rate cuts, fears of a potential government shutdown, and intensifying geopolitical risks. The rally is further supported by a strong technical setup, with Comex gold futures breaking decisively above the $3,800 level. This upside breakout has reinforced bullish momentum, positioning the metal to extend its gains toward the next major resistance near $4,000 per ounce, as market sentiment continues to favor defensive assets in the current uncertain environment."

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said, "Outlook remains bullish with a trading range of Rs 1,13,500–Rs 1,16,500. Key focus this week will be on US Nonfarm Payrolls, ADP employment data, and RBI’s policy announcement on October 1, 2025."