Gold price rises 63% since last Diwali, hit record high today; analysts on yellow metal's rally

Gold price today: Prices of gold on MCX have risen 63% since last Diwali. The yellow metal, which stood at Rs 79,268 on October 29, 2024 (Diwali) reached a record high of Rs 1,28,395 today. Even at record highs, the yellow metal continues to offer opportunities for investors. Global uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, economic slowdowns and expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve have strengthened gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. 

Weakening of the US dollar also pushed the price of gold higher this year. The U.S. dollar has weakened by nearly 10% in the first half of 2025,  led by narrowing rate differentials and global trade  uncertainties. A weaker dollar usually boosts gold prices since it makes the metal cheaper for investors holding other currencies.

Heightened US-China tensions over the tariff hike also added more sparkle to the yellow metal this year. 

Meanwhile, gold price on MCX climbed by Rs 1185 on MCX today to a fresh peak of Rs 1,28,395 against the previous close of Rs 1,27,210. 

In dollar terms, gold prices reached a record high of $4242 ounce today. 

Religare Broking in a report said, "The steep pace of this advance has pushed gold into overbought territory, raising the probability of short-term profit booking or sideways consolidation. A pullback toward key moving averages such as the 20-day or 50-day SMA could provide a healthy correction and present fresh buying opportunities within the ongoing uptrend. Typically, shallow corrections to these support zones tend to attract renewed buying from trend-following participants."

Sandip Raichura, CEO – Retail Broking & Distribution and Director at PL Capital said, "Whether this is a temporary bubble or a longer term fundamental shift in the international monetary order is difficult to ascertain hence its important to keep in mind that corrections may happen at any stage in what could be the start of a historical move in the metal. We continue to advise a 5% allocation at the minimum to the metal even at current prices and believe that unless USD 3950 is violated, we are headed towards $4800 USD / Oz in the near term. A move below $3950 would violate the near term bullish view seriously and profit booking may emerge."

Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities said,"With no major data releases this week, the market focus remains on political and economic developments in the US. Gold’s short-term range is seen between Rs 1,24,000 and Rs 1,29,000, with volatility likely to persist due to global uncertainty and currency movements."