Is silver set to outshine gold in Samvat 2082?

Samvat 2081 has been a blockbuster year for precious metals: gold rallied strongly and silver delivered even stronger returns. With year-to-date gains of roughly 64% for gold and ~85% for silver, and five-year CAGRs of about 30.6% (gold) versus 33% (silver), silver has already started to outpace gold.

But the question for Samvat 2082 is not only past performance — it is whether structural and macro drivers will keep silver’s outperformance intact.

Based on the macro backdrop, demand mix, central bank behaviour and technical setup we believe silver has a compelling case to outperform gold next year — albeit with higher volatility and risks. Why silver can outshine gold in Samvat 2082 — the macro picture

1. Dual demand engine: investment + industry Unlike gold — primarily a monetary and safe-haven asset — silver carries a dual identity: precious metal + industrial metal. This year the industrial leg has strengthened materially. Silver is a critical input for:

• Photovoltaic (solar) cells (silver paste/contacts) • Electric vehicles (electrical connectors, switches)

• Electronics and medical devices Global energy transition (renewables + EV adoption) is increasingly silver-intensive. Even modest acceleration in solar installations or EV adoption translates into meaningful incremental silver consumption because the market is relatively small compared with other base metals. That industrial pull — combined with continued investment demand — gives silver a higher upside leverage than gold.

2. China stimulus & base-metal revival A measured China recovery and stimulus program (manufacturing, infrastructure, green energy) directly supports industrial metals demand. If China’s demand trajectory improves in Samvat 2082, silver will benefit disproportionately relative to gold because of its industrial use cases. The recent policy push toward clean energy globally strengthens that argument.

3. Monetary policy and US real rates (gold’s traditional driver) Gold’s near-term fortunes are tied closely to Fed policy and real yields. Easing or a clearer path to cuts in the Fed funds rate tends to support both metals. But silver gets an extra kick: once interest-rate pain eases and liquidity looks abundant, investors rotate into higher-beta assets — and silver, being lower-priced and more volatile, often catches more speculative flows than gold. In short: easier policy = tailwind for both, but the uplift to silver’s price percentage wise can be larger.

4. ETF & institutional flows, plus central bank dynamics Institutional flows into precious metals ETFs, and central bank gold purchases, have underpinned the overall precious-metals complex. While central banks primarily buy gold, heightened ETF interest in both metals — coupled with fresh retail interest in silver (now at record local prices) — can amplify silver moves. When funds allocate to precious metals in a risk-on rally with liquidity, silver’s smaller market cap often magnifies returns.

5. Relative valuation and leverage effect Silver historically shows higher beta versus gold: when gold climbs, silver often climbs more on the percentage scale (and vice versa). Given gold’s strong run already, silver’s current valuation

and smaller free float create room for outsized percentage moves, especially in an environment of tariff uncertainty, geopolitical risk and potential dollar weakness. Short-term (2–3 months) outlook — what to watch

• US CPI / Core PCE & Fed guidance: weaker inflation / clearer cuts will be supportive.

• China demand indicators (PMIs, solar installations): positive reads increase industrial demand.

• ETF flows and inventory movements: falling global inventories, especially in China, are bullish.

• Geopolitical shocks or tariff escalations: these raise safe-haven flows — good for both metals, but silver’s reaction can be more volatile. Price framework & targets (Samvat 2082 / Diwali horizon) — a calibrated view (Using the domestic scales you track) — approximate targets based on the prevailing structure and our prior ranges:

• Silver (per kg, India): Target range Rs 185,000– Rs 210,000 for 2026 Diwali; bull case Rs 200,000– Rs 240,000 plus if industrial demand accelerates and ETF inflows surge. Risks to the silver-outperformance thesis

• Monetary surprise / hawkish Fed: stronger-than-expected US data or hawkish Fed commentary lifts real yields and the dollar — negative for both metals, especially silver.

• China slowdown: a weaker Chinese industrial story would hit silver harder

• Rapid profit-taking / inventory restocking: silver can correct sharply; its higher beta means pullbacks may be steeper.

• De-risking after a big run: if safe-haven premiums evaporate (geopolitical de-escalation), both metals can correct — silver more so.

How investors should position — practical guidance for Samvat 2082

1. Investment approach — SIP & staggered buys Given silver’s higher volatility (and silver’s strong rally already), SIP/regular accumulation is preferable to lump-sum chasing. Small staggered buys on dips reduce timing risk and capture volatility.

2. Product choice — mix for purpose

• Long-term core: Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) or gold ETFs for gold; for silver, consider silver ETFs or allocated digital silver where available. • Physical demand (festive / jewellery): buy for use/rituals — but avoid treating jewellery as a short-term investment. • Speculative exposure: small-sized futures or leveraged ETFs — only for experienced traders with strict stops.

Conclusion — silver’s edge, but not without caveats Silver enters Samvat 2082 with a favourable structural story: accelerating industrial demand from EVs and solar, supportive China stimulus potential, and elevated investment interest. These factors collectively raise the probability that silver will outshine gold in percentage terms over the next 12 months. That said, silver’s higher beta also means bigger swings — investors should balance upside potential with risk controls: SIPs, staggered entries, ETFs/SGBs over pure physical for large allocations, and clear stop-loss discipline for speculative positions.

Jateen Trivedi is VP Research Commodity at LKP Securities.