'Gurgaon real estate won't crash': Analyst explains how city's traffic jam is driving up prices

Gurgaon’s crumbling infrastructure isn’t depressing property prices—it’s inflating them, argues credit analyst Kunal Sehgal, flipping conventional wisdom on its head amid a record real estate surge in the city.

“They say Gurgaon real estate is overpriced because of bad infrastructure,” Sehgal wrote on LinkedIn. “What they don’t realise is that it’s because of the poor infrastructure that prices are rising.”

Sehgal’s contrarian view comes as Gurgaon real estate becomes the second-most expensive in India, trailing only Mumbai. Average rates in premium sectors now range from ₹16,000 to ₹20,000 per sq ft, with properties like DLF Magnolias touching ₹10 crore for a 4BHK. Even mid-tier sectors start around ₹5,500–₹7,000 per sq ft.

The reason, Sehgal argues, is commuter gridlock. “If the infrastructure was good, people could live in Delhi, Noida, Ghaziabad or Faridabad and just commute to Gurgaon. But it’s so bad, they’re forced to live where they work. That pressure is driving demand.”

In essence: Gurgaon’s “crappy roads” are pricing people in, not out.

The broader market data backs the surge. Gurgaon’s prices have jumped 160% in five years, fueled by NRI interest, tight supply, and luxury launches. Delhi-NCR also logged the highest year-on-year growth among metros in 2025 at 24%. By contrast, Bangalore’s prime areas—despite better infrastructure—still price lower, at ₹10,800–₹13,200 per sq ft.

Sehgal sees this as a failure of simplistic market logic. “First-order thinking only works in countries where things function,” he wrote. “In broken societies, one has to go at least one order further to make sense.”

And once Gurgaon’s roads do improve? “Prices will only go up, because of high watermarking,” he warned. “So good luck hoping for a crash—it will likely never happen.”