'1.2 million fragments...': Satellite safety around Earth under threat as Kessler Syndrome looms large

Space debris is no longer a distant concern found only in science fiction. As of April 2025, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates there are more than 1.2 million fragments of debris larger than 1 cm orbiting our planet.

Even more alarming, over 50,000 of these pieces are greater than 10 cm — each one large enough to obliterate an active satellite on impact. The recent explosion of small satellite launches, especially those tied to commercial mega-constellations, has only worsened the problem.

Every launch into Earth’s orbit now adds to a dangerous congestion of junk, making space less navigable by the year. Despite efforts to mitigate risks, the number of orbital fragments continues to climb. ESA officials warn that, if left unchecked, critical orbital zones could soon become unsafe for use.

This threat isn’t a future possibility — it’s already impacting missions. In June 2024, a defunct Russian satellite disintegrated, unleashing roughly 100 new pieces of debris. The International Space Station had to take evasive measures, while other satellites assessed their risk of collision. Episodes like this are happening more frequently, with each incident compounding the danger of a chain-reaction event.

The science community has long feared this scenario. Back in 1978, NASA scientist Donald J Kessler predicted a self-sustaining cascade of collisions in Low Earth Orbit — a phenomenon now dubbed the Kessler Syndrome. What once seemed like science fiction is rapidly becoming reality, as the density of objects in LEO creeps toward critical levels.

Dan Baker from the University of Colorado warned in late 2024 that, without immediate steps, humans could lose access to crucial orbital regions “for generations.” His warning underscores that this isn’t an abstract risk — it’s an accelerating one.

Today, satellites are operating in a high-risk environment akin to cosmic dodgeball. Those in the congested 500–600 km altitude range now face about 30 close encounters with debris annually. Every evasive maneuver drains fuel and shortens satellite lifespans, threatening services like GPS, weather tracking, and global communications.

The problem isn’t just in orbit — it’s also reaching Earth. In 2024 alone, more than 1,200 objects reentered our atmosphere. While most burned up, some survived. A chunk of a SpaceX rocket was found in North Carolina; a larger object landed near Mukuku village in Kenya. No injuries have been reported so far, but the risks are rising.

Recognizing the growing crisis, the ESA has adopted a “Zero Debris approach,” aiming to halt new debris generation in Earth and lunar orbits by 2030. It introduced tighter mission guidelines in November 2023 and is preparing for ClearSpace-1, a debris-removal mission set for 2028 — the first of its kind.

Tech innovation is racing to keep pace. The DebriSense-THz system, combining terahertz sensing and advanced machine learning, is being trialed to detect and classify even tiny fragments. With smarter avoidance systems and more detailed debris maps, operators are getting better tools to avoid collisions — but the clock is ticking.

Private companies are now major players in space. SpaceX, which runs nearly two-thirds of all active LEO satellites, is under pressure to formally join the ESA’s Zero Debris charter. The company’s cooperation is crucial — without it, global efforts could falter.

Governments are stepping in too. India’s ISRO pledged in April 2024 to pursue “Debris Free Space Missions” by 2030. Meanwhile, the US FCC is tightening regulations on mega-constellations to enforce stricter debris controls.

Across the board, the message is clear: voluntary steps are no longer enough. Strong, coordinated regulation is now essential to prevent the once-hypothetical Kessler Syndrome from becoming an irreversible reality.