Super El Niño alert: How a powerful Pacific warming could hit India’s monsoon & food prices

A powerful El Niño is developing rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, and climate scientists say it could become one of the strongest events seen in decades by late 2026 or early 2027.   

According to the latest forecast from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is now a strong probability that the warming event could become “strong” or even “very strong” — often referred to informally as a “Super El Niño”.   

The concern is significant because El Niño has the power to reshape weather patterns across the globe, triggering floods, droughts, heat waves, wildfires and disruptions to food and water supplies.   

What is El Niño?   

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle caused by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.   

Normally, trade winds push warm surface water westward across the Pacific. During an El Niño event, those winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread eastward toward the Americas.   

That warming changes atmospheric circulation worldwide, influencing rainfall, storms, temperatures and monsoon systems across continents. El Niño events usually occur every two to seven years and tend to peak between October and February.   

Why scientists are concerned this year   

Sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific have risen sharply in recent months, in some places climbing more than 1°C above normal near the western coast of South America.   

Forecast models suggest the warming could intensify significantly through the year.   

NOAA estimates:   

• An 82% chance of El Niño developing between May and July   
• A 96% chance of it fully developing by December   
• A growing possibility that it could become “very strong”   

Some researchers classify a “Super El Niño” when ocean temperatures rise at least 2°C above average. The last event to reach that threshold occurred in 2015-16.   

How El Niño affects global weather   

El Niño changes atmospheric circulation patterns, meaning some parts of the world become much wetter while others turn hotter and drier.   

Hurricane season flip: Strong El Niño events often suppress Atlantic hurricanes because stronger upper-level winds tear apart developing storms.

That usually means:   

 

Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic and Caribbean   

• Reduced storm threats along parts of the US East Coast   
• However, the Pacific Ocean often sees the opposite effect, with:   
• More tropical cyclones in the eastern and central Pacific   
• Greater storm risks for Hawaii and parts of the western Americas   

Impact on India and Asia: El Niño is closely monitored in India because it can weaken the southwest monsoon.   

Historically, strong El Niño years are associated with:   

• Reduced rainfall in India   
• Drier conditions across Southeast Asia   
• Higher risks of drought and water shortages   

This can affect agriculture, food prices, hydropower generation and rural incomes. Warm and dry winters are also more common in parts of southern and eastern Asia during strong El Niño years.   

Impact on Africa and the Americas: Scientists warn that drought conditions could intensify in parts of southern Africa during the Southern Hemisphere summer.   

Meanwhile, some regions of the Americas may experience:   

• Extreme rainfall   
• Flooding   
• Landslides   
• Increased wildfire risks in hotter, drier areas   

A stronger El Niño can also temporarily push global temperatures higher, especially when combined with long-term human-driven climate change. Researchers caution that El Niño forecasts can still change because ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions interact in complex ways.   

But with Pacific Ocean temperatures rising rapidly, climate agencies worldwide are watching closely. If the developing El Niño strengthens further, it could become one of the defining global weather events of the next two years.