Why are early warning systems failing in the Himalayas despite rising disaster risks?

The Himalayas are witnessing increasingly frequent and intense disasters, but experts warn that existing early warning systems (EWS) are not keeping pace with the changing nature of risks. From glacial and geological instability to extreme rainfall and landslides, several hazards can develop in ways that are difficult to detect in advance, leaving communities with limited time to respond.

The August 26 Nepal disaster underlines the challenge facing Himalayan early warning systems. The partial collapse of a glacier atop Langtang Lirung peak triggered a flash flood and debris flow that surged into the Lende Khola and travelled around 100 km downstream along the Trishuli River.

The cascade swept through villages, damaged roads and bridges, disrupted hydropower infrastructure and destroyed thousands of structures, including the Gyirong border port between Nepal and China. The glacier collapse also created temporary barrier lakes, adding to the flood risk and complicating rescue operations. The scale and speed of the event highlight the difficulty of detecting hazards that develop beneath or within unstable mountain terrain.

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Hridayesh Joshi, Visiting Writer at Carbon Copy, said the pattern of disasters across the Himalayan region has changed significantly over the past decade and a half.

“It is very clear that the frequency and intensity of the disasters have increased in the last one and a half decades. The series of disasters in Kedarnath, Chamoli or the subsidence in Joshimath or Dharali and now Nepal serve as a warning for us,” Joshi said at a webinar on Nepal Floods and the New Risks in the Himalayas, organised by Carbon Copy.

Current warning systems have a major gap

Dr Farooq Azam, Senior Cryosphere Specialist and Intervention Manager at ICIMOD, said one of the fundamental problems is that existing EWS infrastructure is designed primarily around specific known hazards, particularly glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).

“Early warning is very difficult in such cases. At the moment, these EWS systems are mostly designed for GLOF. But here there was no lake. The breaking point was below the rocky surface,” Azam said.

This makes monitoring particularly challenging because warning signs may not be visible on the surface. Azam said the situation differed from the Chamoli disaster, where movements had begun gradually and cracks could be identified in pre-disaster imagery.

“During Chamoli, there was still some hope because these movements started gradually and cracks were visible in pre-disaster images. But here, it was difficult to see the crack as it was below the rock,” he said.

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Himalayas need continuous, high-end monitoring

According to Azam, the scale and complexity of the risk require a monitoring system capable of identifying subtle geological movements across the mountain range.

“If we want to predict, we need EWS across the area, special high-end EWS that can see the movements, and provide high resolution images.”

He said machine-learning technology could play a role in analysing imagery and detecting movements that may signal an impending disaster.

“We also need machine learning models to detect movement. We also need high resolution weather forecasts for which we need more weather stations. Atmospheric sciences can contribute but not much data is available.”

The lack of adequate atmospheric data is another obstacle. A stronger network of weather stations and higher-resolution forecasts could help improve understanding of extreme weather conditions and their potential interaction with geological and cryospheric processes.

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Climate change is adding new layers of risk

Azam said warming is affecting both glaciers and the geological environment. As glaciers retreat, they expose rock surfaces and leave loose debris behind. At high altitudes, permafrost can also act as a reservoir of frozen water, and warming may cause these layers to degrade.

He described the recent disaster as potentially involving both climate-related and geological processes, highlighting why conventional hazard-specific warning systems may not be enough.

Monitoring in Himalayan peaks remains inadequate

Joshi said there is a significant disparity between preparedness systems in coastal areas and those in the Himalayan region.

“The monitoring and early warning system which we have available and effective in coastal areas is not as active in the Himalayan peaks.”

The geography itself makes monitoring difficult, with remote, high-altitude terrain and limited infrastructure adding to the challenge.

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Warnings must reach communities

Even when warnings are generated, experts say they may not necessarily translate into timely action. Azam pointed to the need for greater public awareness, noting that around 4,000 messages were sent to people downstream during the recent event, but many did not take the warnings seriously.

He said greater awareness and sensitisation could reduce the impact of disasters.

Joshi also highlighted community-based warning mechanisms, where people upstream alert communities downstream when river levels rise. While such systems can be effective in many situations, he cautioned that they may not be sufficient during extreme events.

The experts argue that Himalayan disaster preparedness therefore needs a broader approach: continuous monitoring, high-resolution satellite imagery, machine-learning models, denser weather networks, community-level awareness and stronger early warning infrastructure. With the frequency and intensity of disasters increasing, improving the ability to detect risks before they become catastrophic is becoming an increasingly urgent requirement.

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