FIFA World Cup winner? Opta supercomputer picks this country as favourite, Messi’s Argentina lags

The FIFA World Cup kicks off next week, and the first round of predictions is already generating excitement for football’s largest tournament.

For the first time, 48 teams will compete in the expanded edition, hosted jointly by the United States, Mexico, and Canada across 16 stadiums. The tournament begins on June 11 and concludes with the final on July 19 in East Rutherford, New Jersey.

With 104 matches, 12 groups, and a new round of 32 in the knockout stage, the 2026 World Cup is set to be the largest in history. Argentina enter as defending champions, having lifted the trophy in Qatar 2022 under Lionel Messi, but Opta’s supercomputer has already identified an early favourite in what promises to be one of the most open and unpredictable competitions in recent memory.

Opta’s early favourite

According to the Opta supercomputer, Spain are the early favourites to win the 2026 World Cup. The model simulated the tournament 10,000 times and found Spain winning the title in 16.1% of those projections.

Spain were also rated as the only team more likely than not to reach the quarter-finals, doing so in 52.1% of simulations. They reached the semi-finals 39.0% of the time and made the final in 25.6% of simulations.

The model gives Spain a strong chance of topping Group H, where they face Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. Opta’s simulations had Spain finishing first in the group 75.3% of the time.

Main challengers

France emerged as the second-most likely winners, lifting the trophy in 13.0% of simulations. They were followed by England at 11.2% and defending champions Argentina at 10.4%.

France, who have contested the last two World Cup finals, face Norway, Senegal and Iraq in Group I. Opta gives them a 60.3% chance of topping the group. The tournament will also mark the end of Didier Deschamps’ long spell as France coach, with Kylian Mbappé set to captain the team at a World Cup for the first time.

England enter the tournament after a dominant qualifying campaign under Thomas Tuchel. The team won all eight qualifiers without conceding a goal and are rated as the third-favourites to win the title.

Defending champions in the race

Argentina are expected to make a strong start from Group J, where they face Austria, Algeria and Jordan. Messi, now 38, will again be central to their hopes as they attempt to become the first team since Brazil in 1962 to retain the World Cup.

Next group of contenders

Portugal, Brazil and Germany form the next group of contenders. Portugal have a 7.0% chance of winning the title, Brazil stand at 6.6%, and Germany at 5.1%.

Co-hosts face long odds

The three co-hosts are not seen as serious title contenders. The United States have a 1.2% chance of winning the tournament, Mexico are at 1.0%, while Canada ranks further down Opta’s projections.

Debutants get their shot

The 2026 World Cup will also feature four debutants, Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan and Uzbekistan. While none are expected to go deep, the expanded format gives lower-ranked teams a better shot at reaching the knockouts.