Oil at $150, gas prices to quadruple? Qatar warns West Asia war could crash global economy

The escalating conflict in West Asia is raising alarm across global energy markets, with Saad al-Kaabi warning that prolonged disruption in the Gulf could send oil and gas prices soaring and potentially trigger a global economic slowdown.  

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In an interview with The Financial Times, the Qatari energy minister said the ongoing war — sparked after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran — has already disrupted key shipping routes and could force Gulf energy exporters to halt production within weeks if conditions do not improve.  

Global energy markets on edge  

Al-Kaabi predicted crude oil could surge to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tanker traffic remains unable to move through the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.  

He also warned that natural gas prices could climb sharply, reaching $40 per million British thermal units, nearly four times the level before the war began.  

According to the minister, the disruption may soon force energy exporters across the Gulf to invoke force majeure, a legal clause that allows suppliers to suspend deliveries due to extraordinary circumstances.  

“Everybody who has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call a force majeure,” al-Kaabi said.  

Shipping through Hormuz nearly halted  

Commercial shipping through the narrow waterway has slowed dramatically since hostilities intensified. The Strait of Hormuz — just 24 miles wide at its narrowest point and running along the Iranian coastline — has become increasingly dangerous for civilian vessels.  

At least ten ships have reportedly been hit, insurance premiums have surged, and many ship owners are unwilling to risk their vessels and crews.  

Even though Donald Trump has offered naval escorts from the United States Navy and additional insurance guarantees, al-Kaabi suggested those measures may not be enough to restore normal shipping.

“The way that we are seeing the attacks, bringing ships into the strait, it's too dangerous,” he said, adding that commercial vessels could become targets amid ongoing military activity.  

Damage at Qatar’s LNG hub  

The conflict has already affected Qatar’s energy infrastructure. An Iranian drone strike targeted facilities near the massive liquefied natural gas complex at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the heart of Qatar’s LNG industry.  

While offshore production platforms remain intact, officials are still assessing damage to onshore facilities. Al-Kaabi said it could take weeks or even months to return to normal export operations even if the war ended immediately.  

Restarting shipments would also present logistical challenges. Qatar operates a fleet of 128 LNG carriers, but only six or seven were currently available near the loading facilities.  

“Each ship takes a day or two and you can load six or seven at a time,” he said, indicating the backlog could take time to clear.  

Ripple effects across the global economy  

Beyond the immediate energy shock, the minister warned that continued disruption could ripple across the global economy.  

Higher energy prices would likely slow global growth, disrupt industrial supply chains and cause shortages of key commodities such as petrochemicals and fertiliser feedstocks—products heavily produced in Gulf states.  

“If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted,” al-Kaabi said. “In addition to energy, there will be a halt on all other trade between the Gulf and the world.”  

Europe could face gas squeeze  

Although Qatar sends only a limited share of its LNG exports to Europe, al-Kaabi warned the continent could still face a severe squeeze.  

Asian buyers — traditionally willing to pay higher prices— would likely outbid European importers for whatever limited supplies remain on the global market. Replacing Qatar’s massive export capacity would also be nearly impossible, he noted.  

“Let’s assume you want to buy 77 million tonnes and deliver it to customers,” al-Kaabi said. “There is no 77 million tonnes lying around for you to buy.”