'Iranian security forces remain united, that's the challenge': Blinken on regime collapse and what comes next

As protests spread across Iran, former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the country's security forces remain united - a factor he described as the key challenge to any regime collapse.

Iran has, for the last two weeks, been facing furious demonstrations, which were triggered by economic collapse and quickly widened into open political defiance.

Asked how Washington should respond, Blinken cautioned against confident predictions. "Anyone who tells you they know where Iran's going to go, I would listen to someone else because the fact of the matter is, all we can say for certain is that this regime will endure until it doesn't," Blinken said while speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box.

What is different this time, he said, is the breadth of the uprising. "Now, what's new here? What's different? What's so powerful is that you have, virtually, all of Iranian society on the streets. This is an incredible cross-section of people. It's the poor folks and the middle class. It's urban and rural. It's women. It's the labour movement. It's the merchants. That's very, very powerful."

Blinken linked the unrest directly to economic distress. "And it starts with the economy. It's the economy, stupid. You have 70% inflation for food, 50% across the board, huge youth unemployment. The currency (rial) has taken a dive against the dollar. People don't feel like they have a future.”

The former secretary of state said resentment towards the ruling elite had turned visceral. "There is revulsion at the elites. There was one chant in the streets the other day – 'Their children are in Canada (studying or improving their lives), ours are in prison'. So that's very powerful."

Beyond economics, Blinken argued that recent regional confrontations had stripped away the regime's aura of strength. "The people have seen that the emperor has no clothes. When Iran attacked Israel, not once but twice during our administration, and we helped Israel effectively repel and deal with that. And when Israel took on Iran last June, with the strong support of the Trump administration, that exposed the regime for what it is, which is hollow and the loss of its proxies. All of that has made a powerful impression."

He added that protesters were now openly questioning Tehran's regional posture. "And you have people also chanting in the streets that they're sick of Iran's foreign entanglements."

Still, Blinken stressed that momentum in the streets had not yet fractured the state's coercive power. "But here is the challenge. You have a security force that continues, at least for the moment, to be united and to use the most violent, lethal means to put down these protests."

That unity, he said, leaves several possible outcomes. "How that plays out could go on any one of a number of directions. This could lead to an incredibly vicious crackdown. That's what we seem to be seeing right now."

Other paths remain possible, he added. "It could lead to some kind of change in regime, either the military taking over and pushing out the clerics or something softer. It could lead to the Iranians reaching out, trying to cut a deal with us. And we've seen signs of that."

Blinken also pointed to a possible political rallying point. "It could lead maybe to democratic transition. You see a lot of people in the streets all rallying behind the son of the former shah, Reza Pahlavi, who's in exile but seems to be a unifying figure."

"So this could play out in any one of a number of ways. Maybe this is the moment, but we've been there before," the former secretary said.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump took a far more direct public stance. Writing on Truth Social, Trump said: "Iranian Patriots, keep protesting - take over your institutions. Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters stops. Help is on its way."

Trump also warned that the US would take "very strong action" if Iran executes protesters. The remarks came as relatives of 26-year-old Erfan Soltani told BBC Persian he is due to be executed today (Wednesday).

More than 2,400 anti-government demonstrators have been killed in the crackdown so far, according to a US-based rights group. The unrest began on 28 December, when shopkeepers in Tehran took to the streets after another sharp fall in the value of the rial against the US dollar on the open market. Over the past year, the currency has sunk to record lows, while inflation has surged to around 40%, pushing up prices of basic items such as cooking oil and meat.