Is Europe preparing for war? Macron Russia warning, drone fears & UK emergency advice

Europe is entering a new phase of security anxiety. Governments are not saying a major war with Russia is imminent, but warnings from senior leaders, suspected drone and sabotage incidents and a growing push to prepare civilians and critical infrastructure show that European capitals are planning for a more dangerous security environment.

The latest warning came from French President Emmanuel Macron on September 18. After briefing political party leaders at the Élysée Palace, Macron said the Russian hybrid threat facing France and Europe had intensified in recent weeks. He ordered preparations for a plan to protect critical infrastructure and sensitive defence-industry and technology sites from drone and cyberattacks.

Macron also issued a stark warning: Europe should not expect advance notice if Russia moves from hybrid operations to a physical attack.

Macron: Europe will not be warned 

Macron's comments followed a French Defence and National Security Council meeting on September 16 and a series of suspicious incidents across Europe.

He referred to an August incident at Leipzig in Germany, where an explosive-laden drone was reportedly involved in an operation attributed to Russia's military intelligence service, the GRU. Macron said the operation failed but could have caused significant casualties and material damage.

He also pointed to drone incursions into the airspace of several European countries, arguing that their geographical reach showed that "no one is safe".

His warning was direct: Europe has already faced information operations, cyberattacks and physical incidents attributed to Russia, but these attacks did not come with warnings.

"The day we are attacked physically, we will not be warned," Macron said, arguing that Europe must raise its vigilance now.

Macron, however, framed the immediate challenge as a hybrid threat, rather than announcing that Europe was heading into conventional war.

Why European leaders are worried 

The concern extends beyond the battlefield in Ukraine.

European officials are increasingly worried that Russia could test NATO's resolve through drone or missile attacks on alliance territory as Moscow expands its campaign of hybrid operations across Europe.

For years, European governments largely treated Russian cyberattacks, disinformation, espionage and sabotage as threats below the threshold of conventional warfare. Recent incidents are forcing officials to consider what could happen if such operations become more aggressive or cause significant civilian casualties.

That is particularly sensitive for NATO. A deliberate armed attack on a member could trigger consultations under Article 5, although the treaty does not prescribe an automatic military response in every circumstance.

This uncertainty is one reason European governments are placing greater emphasis on deterrence and preparedness.

Incidents behind the alarm 

The recent concerns go beyond drones. France has reported a series of suspicious incidents, while other European countries have investigated suspected sabotage and cyber operations.

Reports have cited incidents including the Leipzig drone operation, railway disruptions in the Netherlands and a September 11 train derailment between Caen and Rouen after a large section of rail was placed across the tracks, injuring 44 people. French authorities have also investigated fires near the Eurenco explosives facility in Sorgues.

European governments have been careful to distinguish between suspicion and established attribution. Not every unexplained incident has been publicly linked to Russia.

The term "hybrid warfare" itself covers a broad range of activities, including cyberattacks, sabotage, influence operations and disinformation, alongside other methods intended to disrupt or intimidate an adversary.

UK has been preparing civilians 

Britain has taken preparedness beyond military planning. The UK government has encouraged households to maintain basic emergency supplies, including food, water, first-aid materials, torches and ways to receive information during major disruptions.

Officials have stressed that the advice is not simply about preparing for war. It also covers cyberattacks, power outages, flooding, infrastructure failures and other emergencies.

But the timing is significant.

The UK's 2026 public preparedness survey found that 28% of respondents considered it likely or very likely that war could affect their local area within two years. The survey also examined whether households had basic emergency supplies.

Britain is simultaneously increasing military preparedness. The government has announced a £15 billion funding boost for the armed forces, including more than £5 billion for drones, £790 million for protection against air, drone and missile threats, and £11 billion to increase weapons and munitions stockpiles.

That combination — civilian resilience and military investment — is increasingly visible across Europe.

France prepares for drones, cyberattacks & sabotage 

Macron has instructed the French government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure and the most sensitive sites in the country's defence industrial and technological base.

France is also strengthening its response to foreign interference and cyberattacks. Macron pointed to institutions such as VIGINUM, which monitors foreign interference, and legislation covering foreign interference and cyber threats.

The concern is not limited to military bases. Critical infrastructure includes energy, communications, transport, technology and other systems whose disruption could affect daily life and national security.

A successful attack on such infrastructure could cause significant disruption without a conventional military assault.

Is Russia preparing to attack NATO? 

This is where the distinction between risk and expectation matters.

European leaders are preparing for the possibility that Russia could expand its hybrid operations and potentially test NATO territory. But that does not mean European governments have announced that Russia is preparing an imminent conventional invasion of NATO.

Macron said Russia had multiplied attacks against European interests since the summer and argued that the nature of Russian aggression in Europe was changing.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also warned about the possibility of Russian drone and missile strikes against countries supporting Ukraine. Macron described Tusk's warning as serious and said Europe should not underestimate incidents such as Leipzig.

Ukraine remains central 

Macron has explicitly linked Europe's security concerns to continued support for Ukraine.

His argument is that Russia's campaign is also intended to intimidate European governments and weaken their willingness to support Kyiv. France therefore intends to continue supporting Ukraine while strengthening its own defences against hybrid attacks.

This leaves Europe facing a difficult calculation: supporting Ukraine carries security and economic risks, but European leaders increasingly view the outcome of the war as directly connected to the continent's long-term security.