US Elections 2024: Why are 7 key swing states important to determine who wins, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump?

As the 2024 US presidential elections begin, all eyes are on seven crucial swing states that hold the key to the outcome for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, 60, and her Republican opponent and former President Donald Trump, 78.

These important states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—account for 93 electoral votes and represent the primary battlegrounds in the race to secure the necessary 270 out of a total of 538 electoral votes for the presidency. 

Characteristic of swing states

Swing states, characterised by their potential to shift between Democratic and Republican support, are known for their historically narrow voting margins and dynamic electoral outcomes. As such, they are the focus of intensive campaigning by both candidates seeking to sway voters. On the final day of campaigning, Harris and Trump engaged in marathon rallies in Pennsylvania, the largest swing state, with 19 electoral votes.

The Blue Wall

Among these pivotal states, three stand out as particularly essential for Harris's path to victory: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Known collectively as the "Blue Wall," these states had previously been Democratic strongholds until Trump successfully flipped them in the 2016 election, breaking an extended period of Democratic dominance in the region.

Joe Biden reclaimed these states in 2020, albeit by narrow margins that highlight their competitive nature and the necessity for Harris to secure them in 2024. 

- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes): Traditionally leaning Democratic, Pennsylvania became a battleground state when Trump won by a narrow 0.7% in 2016. In 2020, Biden regained the state with a 1.2% margin. Winning Pennsylvania is crucial for Harris, as it could significantly bolster her chances in the electoral race, especially among the state's working-class and unionised voters.

- Michigan (15 Electoral Votes): A critical part of the "Blue Wall," Michigan has a history of voting for the winning candidate. Trump's victory in 2016 was a major upset, marking the first Republican win there since 1988. Biden managed to reclaim Michigan in 2020 by approximately 154,000 votes, aided by support from the Arab-American community. Retaining Michigan in 2024 is seen as vital for Harris, given its electoral weight.

- Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes): This state has a track record of voting for the winning candidate, but often by extremely narrow margins. Winning Wisconsin is essential for Harris; its electoral votes could prove decisive in a closely contested election.

Beyond the "Blue Wall," four additional states are also crucial to the electoral calculus:

- Arizona (11 Electoral Votes): Biden's victory in Arizona in 2020 marked a significant Democratic achievement. With a narrow margin of just 10,457 votes, the state’s diverse suburban and Latino populations make it a vital target for both campaigns.

- Georgia (16 Electoral Votes): Biden's narrow win in Georgia in 2020 was the first for a Democrat since 1992, largely due to increased voter turnout among African Americans. Reclaiming Georgia would enhance Harris's electoral standing and solidify Democratic influence in the Sun Belt.

- North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes): A historically Republican state that remains competitive, North Carolina could play a key role in the election. Trump won the state by progressively smaller margins in 2016 and 2020, but demographic shifts may provide opportunities for both parties.

- Nevada (6 Electoral Votes): Generally leaning Democratic, Nevada is experiencing signs of potential Republican resurgence amid economic challenges. With a narrow 33,600 vote margin in Biden's 2020 win, the state is a potential battleground as economic recovery remains a key issue.

What lies ahead?

Political analysts suggest that Harris needs to secure approximately 45 electoral votes from competitive states to reach the 270 target with important wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

For Trump, reclaiming these key battlegrounds, particularly Pennsylvania and Michigan, is critical, along with targeting traditionally Democratic-leaning states like North Carolina.

(With inputs from Girish Kumar Anshul)