With a few weeks left for Lok Sabha election results, the satta bazzar is betting high on Narendra Modi returning to power but believes his influence has waned since 2014, suggested media reports. The betting market expects the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win up to 250 of the 543 Parliament seats, which is short of majority, as against 77 seats of the Congress party.
"The BJP continues to be a favourite of the bookies this election season and will get around 240-250 seats on its own. With around 55 seats from the allies, it is sure to cross 300 seats. In Rajasthan, the BJP will get around 18 seats even though the state government machinery is being run by the Congress," news agency IANS quoted a bookie as saying, who requested anonymity.
According to the bookmaker, Rahul Gandhi's Congress will win around 76-79 seats, which is much higher than the 2014 tally of 44.
"We are expecting the BJP to win 240 seats. At best, the tally may touch 245 but not more than that," one of the punters told the news agency.
IANS quoted multiple satta market operators as saying that although the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government will be back at Centre, it would have to rely on its allies.
The bookies have made these predictions based on the polling in the first three phases of election across 303 Lok Sabha seats. The 2019 general election is being held in seven phases from April 11 to May 19 to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha. The counting of votes will be conducted on May 23, and the results will be declared on the same day.
The bookies also predicted that the BJP will win 41 seats in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, almost half of its previous tally of 71. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is expected to win 20-22 seats, followed by Gujarat (22-24 seats), Bihar (12-14 seats), West Bengal (8-11 seats), Haryana (7-9 seats), and Delhi (5-7 seats), as per IANS report.
The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will win 31-34 seats in Maharashtra, as per the bookies' predictions.
Ahead of elections, the poll predictions of prominent agencies had shown that BJP-led NDA might come back to power, but with a slim margin. Congress and some other Opposition parties are likely to improve their seat share.
The poll of polls - an average of all major opinion polls - predicted that the NDA could get 277 seats this time, which is just 5 seats more than the halfway mark of 272. The NDA, which is once again contesting 2019 Lok Sabha election under Narendra Modi's leadership, swept victory in 2014 Lok Sabha election as it won 336 seats while the saffron party managed 282 on its own.
As per the survey, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which pulled off three stunning victories in the Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, is likely to increase its seat tally to 138 as opposed to its tally of 59 in 2014. The Congress's individual score was 44 in the last Lok Sabha polls.
Edited by Chitranjan Kumar