Bihar election results: 5 explosive battlegrounds could flip the entire poll script

As Bihar braces for Assembly election results today, all eyes are on five key regions: Tirhut, Mithilanchal and Kosi, Saran, Seemanchal, and Shahabad—where sharp social and political divides could tip the balance between the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.

In Seemanchal, a Muslim-majority stretch including Purnia, Katihar, Araria, and Kishanganj, the Mahagathbandhan is counting on loyalty from its core base. But the AIMIM, which won five seats here in 2020, returns to the fray, threatening to split the Muslim vote. Jan Suraaj’s Sarfaraz Alam could also complicate Jokihat’s contest, where his brother, RJD’s Shahnawaz Alam, is the sitting MLA.

Shahabad, home to 22 seats across Bhojpur, Rohtas, Kaimur, and Buxar, was pivotal in the Mahagathbandhan’s 2020 surge, when it bagged 20 seats thanks in part to the LJP (RV) and Rastriya Lok Morcha cutting into the NDA’s share. This time, both parties are back with the NDA, potentially reversing that trend. The BSP is also in play in several constituencies.

In Tirhut—Bihar’s largest region with 49 seats—the NDA banks on its traditional grip over East and West Champaran, bolstered by Nitish Kumar’s crackdown on cross-border crime. Muzaffarpur and Sitamarhi remain battlegrounds amid a diverse caste mix of upper castes, OBCs, and EBCs like Dhanuks and Mallahs.

Mithilanchal and Kosi, covering 40 seats, may tilt toward the Mahagathbandhan, bolstered by a solid Yadav-Muslim base and the support of Mukesh Sahani’s Vikassheel Insaan Party, which could sway Nishad voters. But polarisation in Brahmin-Muslim mixed areas like Darbhanga and Madhubani could benefit the BJP.

Saran, with 24 seats, remains fiercely contested. Key showdowns include Siwan, where BJP’s Mangal Pandey faces RJD veteran Awadh Bihari Choudhary, and Chhapra, where Bhojpuri star Khesari Lal Yadav enters the fray for RJD against BJP’s Chhoti Kumari.