Bihar’s big reveal today: Can Nitish Kumar hold on? Will Chirag Paswan or Prashant Kishor play spoiler?

As Bihar counts its votes Friday, five political narratives will define the fallout—from Nitish Kumar’s future as NDA’s face to the make-or-break moment for debutant Jan Suraaj and the rising stakes for regional players like Chirag Paswan and the Congress.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership hangs in the balance. With the JD(U) no longer the senior NDA partner, its performance against the BJP will shape whether Nitish retains control. If his party rebounds from its 2020 tally of 43 seats, it could reaffirm his authority. But a weak showing, especially if the BJP surges past the JD(U), may invite questions about his continued primacy.

Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj, contesting its first election, eyes long-term credibility more than seats. Even modest success—such as a strong vote share or key role in tight races—could establish it as a third force. A flop would relegate it to political footnote status.

The Congress, contesting around 60 seats, seeks relevance beyond being the RJD’s junior partner. A meaningful seat tally could earn it bargaining power in the Mahagathbandhan. But if it underperforms again, its influence could further erode despite Rahul Gandhi’s Voter Adhikar Yatra campaign.

Among Mahagathbandhan’s smaller allies, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) and Indian Inclusive Party (IIP) aim to deliver Extremely Backward Caste votes. Their ability to swing margins or capture seats could reshape the Opposition alliance’s social coalition—or expose its limits.

Finally, all eyes are on Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), which was given 29 seats in the NDA pact, banking on its Lok Sabha performance. If it delivers again, Chirag’s clout will grow—possibly unsettling the JD(U) within the NDA. A poor showing, however, could undercut his bold claims and shift internal coalition dynamics.