Howard Lutnick’s question, answered: Why 1.4 bn Indians don't even buy 1 bushel of US corn

Corn has become a flashpoint in US-India trade tensions, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick bluntly asking, “India brags that they have 1.4 billion people. Why don’t 1.4 billion people buy one bushel of US corn?”

The question captures rising frustration in Washington as India remains largely closed to American corn exports. In 2024–25, India imported just 1,100 tonnes of US corn—minuscule compared to its total imports of 0.97 million tonnes, most of which came from Myanmar and Ukraine.

So why doesn’t India import US corn?

There are two main reasons. First, tariffs. India allows 0.5 million tonnes of corn imports per year at a 15% tariff; anything beyond that is hit with a steep 50% duty. Second, India prohibits imports of genetically modified (GM) corn—a dealbreaker for the US, where 94% of corn production is GM-based.

Why does the US care?

With China sharply cutting its corn imports from the US—from $5.2 billion in 2022 to just $331 million in 2024—Washington is aggressively seeking new buyers. US corn exports have fallen from $18.57 billion in 2022 to $13.7 billion in 2024. India, with rising demand for poultry, dairy, and ethanol, is seen as a key untapped market.

But why is India resisting?

India’s domestic corn prices (₹22–23/kg) and the government’s minimum support price (₹24/kg) are far above the US farmgate price of less than ₹15/kg. Allowing cheaper GM imports would undercut Indian farmers—especially in states like Bihar, a top maize producer, which is heading into elections.

While one proposal once floated the idea of importing GM corn strictly for ethanol production, it was withdrawn amid political pushback. For now, India’s position remains unchanged: no GM corn, and no tariff relaxation.

What’s next?

The US is likely to continue pushing, but any breakthrough is unlikely until after India’s election cycle. Until then, corn remains more than a grain—it’s a geopolitical sticking point.