Monsoon 2026: July showers bring relief, but 15% rainfall deficit continues, says Skymet

India is likely to end July with near-normal rainfall, but the overall southwest monsoon season will continue to remain 15% below normal. Rainfall during July has witnessed sharp fluctuations, with an exceptionally wet first week, a dry second week, and another intense spell of rain between July 21 and July 24, helping erase the month's rainfall deficit.

"Rainfall has been marginally normal so far in July, and the month is likely to conclude with near-normal precipitation. Around 9–9.5 mm of rainfall per day is expected until the end of the month," According to Skymet weather agency.

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The monsoon began in July on a strong note, with heavy showers during the first week reducing the seasonal rainfall deficit from 40% to 14%. However, a prolonged dry spell in the second week reversed much of that progress, pushing the seasonal deficit back up to 24%.

The situation improved once again after widespread rainfall between July 21 and July 24, which eliminated July's monthly shortfall and brought the overall seasonal deficit down to 15%, where it is expected to remain at the end of the month.

The agency noted that a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal, along with a cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, is likely to prevent any major shortfall in rainfall during the final days of the month.

Despite the improved rainfall in July, Skymet said there are no clear signs that the overall monsoon deficit of 15% will be recovered during the second half of the season.

The agency said future rainfall performance will largely depend on the strength of the developing El Niño and the evolution of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), two major climate drivers that significantly influence India's monsoon.

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"A clearer picture of the seasonal rainfall outlook is expected during the first week of August," Skymet said.

Over the next 10 days, east, northeast, and northwest India are expected to receive fairly well-distributed rainfall both spatially and temporally.

However, central India, including Maharashtra and Gujarat, is likely to witness a relatively weak phase of the monsoon. South peninsular India, particularly its interior and southeastern regions, is also expected to remain largely rain-deficient, with no significant spells of rainfall forecast during the period.