US ends Russian, Iranian oil waivers: Where will India source crude oil now? 

Washington’s decision to shut the door on Russian and Iranian oil waivers has left India staring at a fresh supply challenge just as its dependence on discounted Russian crude had begun to deepen again.  

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on April 15 that the United States will not renew sanctions waivers covering Russian and Iranian oil imports. “We will not be renewing the general licence on Russian oil and Iranian oil,” Bessent said during a White House press briefing, adding that the waiver only applied to cargoes “that were in the water prior to March 11.”  

The 30-day general licence for Russian cargoes loaded before March 12 has now expired, while the separate waiver for Iranian oil is due to lapse on April 19. The move closes the narrow legal window that had allowed Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to sharply ramp up purchases of Russian crude over the past month.  

That surge is visible in data from vessel-tracking firm Kpler. India’s Russian crude imports climbed to a nine-month high of nearly 1.96 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March 2026, up roughly 53% from February, with much of that increase concentrated during the waiver period.  

Kpler’s data also underlines how dramatic the rebound was. Indian imports of Russian crude had been falling steadily in the preceding months, declining from 1.21 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.05 mbpd in January, and remaining at that level through February, the weakest stretch in three months.

The spike in March came as the conflict in West Asia disrupted India’s traditional Middle Eastern supply lines. Iraqi crude imports, for instance, collapsed by nearly 75% to around 240,000 barrels per day by the end of March, down from 969,000 bpd in February.  

That disruption has only reinforced India’s structural dependence on Russian oil. Russian crude accounted for 35.9% of India’s total crude imports in 2023-24 and 35.8% in 2024-25. With Gulf shipping routes under strain and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing, Moscow became not merely an option but a stabilising pillar in India’s crude basket.  

Now, with the April 19 deadline approaching, India faces the task of replacing almost 2 million barrels per day of supply across new geographies, contracts and shipping routes. That is unlikely to happen without cost. Longer-haul cargoes will mean higher freight rates, tighter tanker availability and potentially more expensive crude.

So where does India turn?  

The government’s answer has consistently been diversification. Even through the ongoing Hormuz disruption, New Delhi has argued that India’s import basket is broader and more resilient than before.  

“Sourcing of crude are techno-commercial decisions and OMCs have already diversified imports of energy sources to more than 40 countries,” Sujata Sharma, Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, said earlier.  

India’s contingency plan is now expected to revolve around suppliers outside the Gulf and beyond the Hormuz chokepoint.  

Latin America is likely to emerge as the first line of replacement. Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador have become increasingly important suppliers to Indian refiners, while Guyana — now producing around 1.1 million bpd in 2026 — has rapidly emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing new oil exporters.

West Africa is also expected to play a larger role, with stable volumes from Nigeria and Angola offering refiners an alternative to Gulf grades. At the same time, Indian OMCs are likely to increase purchases from the United States, where shale-linked crude offers both scale and reliability.  

None of these options is a perfect substitute for discounted Russian barrels. But together, they may provide India enough flexibility to soften the blow from the expiry of sanctions waivers on Russian and Iranian oil — even if it comes at a higher price.