Weather Update: IMD predicts early monsoon arrival in Kerala, issues yellow alert for Mumbai

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an early arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala by May 27, 2025. This marks the earliest onset on the Indian mainland since 2009, when it arrived on May 23. The early arrival is expected to bring above-normal cumulative rainfall throughout the country during the monsoon season from June to September. The IMD stated that this year's rainfall is likely to exceed 104 per cent of the Long Period Average.

In southern India, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, persistent rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and gusty winds is expected over the next five days. Central India will experience similar weather conditions, reflecting a widespread change from the usual dry spell prior to the monsoon. These developments have stirred anticipation across regions accustomed to the traditional June 1 onset with a week’s variability.

Mumbai is currently witnessing pre-monsoon showers, with several parts of the city affected by rain. As these conditions persist, a yellow alert has been issued for Mumbai, Thane, Raigad, and other parts of Maharashtra, warning of thunderstorms, lightning, moderate rainfall, and gusty winds from May 17 to May 21, 2025. Mumbai will remain under this alert on specific days, while neighbouring districts continue to face these conditions through Wednesday.

The IMD's bulletin suggests that unsettled weather is likely to prevail across Maharashtra for the next four days as the rest of the state is also under a yellow warning. This signals a phase of turbulent weather extending beyond the Konkan region, covering much of the state as it braces for the full monsoon impact.

The annual southwest monsoon is a crucial period for India, marking the commencement of the rainy season that ends the hot and dry summer. Typically setting in over Kerala around June 1, this year’s forecasted early onset is seen as a significant indicator of climatic shifts. The monsoon’s advance is vital for agriculture, water supply, and overall economic activity in the region.

Despite the early onset, all eyes remain on the weather conditions as they evolve over the coming weeks. The IMD continues to monitor the situation closely, emphasising the importance of preparedness in light of the expected above-normal rainfall.