Extreme heat could put millions of jobs at risk across India, says World Bank

Extreme heat is emerging as one of the biggest risks to jobs and productivity across South Asia, with India expected to bear a significant share of the economic burden as rising temperatures reduce workers' ability to perform outdoor and physically demanding tasks, according to a World Bank report.

As per World Bank's recent report, 'A Livable Future: A New Climate Reality for South Asian Cities', heat affects the economy through two channels: directly by slowing workers, making them sick and reducing earnings, and indirectly by disrupting the infrastructure that enables economic activity, including electricity, transport and buildings.

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According to the report, more than 700 million people in India, Bangladesh and Nepal already live in areas where outdoor heat stress exceeds theoretical coping limits for at least one day every year, while around 120 million people experience such conditions for at least one month annually.

The report notes that cities across South Asia are becoming significantly hotter. Urban residents currently experience an average of 78 days each year with temperatures above 35°C, second only to the Middle East and North Africa. By the end of the century, that figure is projected to rise to 126 days annually, making South Asia the hottest region in the world for urban populations.

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The economic consequences extend beyond workers themselves. During heatwaves, power failures interrupt production, transport disruptions delay workers and supply chains, while overheated buildings affect schools and hospitals. "Infrastructure is the mechanism through which heat converts localised exposure into economy-wide disruption," the report states, warning that much of South Asia's infrastructure was not designed for today's climate.

India is already witnessing rising pressure on infrastructure as temperatures climb. Air-conditioner sales increased by an estimated 34% between 2023 and 2024, while electricity demand reached a record 156 billion units in May 2024, 15% higher than a year earlier. At temperatures above 40°C, the frequency of power outages rises by 20–50%, while outage duration increases by 15–60%, according to analysis cited in the report.

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The report also highlights growing heat exposure in Indian cities. Ahmedabad already experiences more than 200 days each year of very high heat stress, while Mumbai is projected to reach 227 days and New Delhi 180 days by 2050.