Goldman warns: Oil could surge past $120 if Hormuz disruptions continue 

Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz persist, Bloomberg reported, citing a note from the investment bank. However, this is not the base-case scenario. 

Goldman analysts, led by Daan Struyven, said in a July 20 note that "escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up."

Despite the recent rally, Goldman continues to forecast Brent at $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, assuming tensions in West Asia ease. However, the investment bank said the risks to those forecasts are "tilted to the upside", pointing to continued disruptions in Hormuz and the possibility of further shipping disruptions in the Red Sea.

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Fighting And Shipping Threats Jolt Oil Markets

Global oil markets have been shaken this month as renewed fighting between the US and Iran pushed Brent back above $91 a barrel. At the same time, Tehran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened to blockade Saudi Arabian oil shipments.

Red Sea shipping has become increasingly important in allowing crude cargoes affected by disruptions in Hormuz to reach global buyers.

Goldman said tighter global oil inventories in the second quarter have left markets more vulnerable to supply shocks. However, the global investment bank added that weaker Chinese crude imports and greater demand elasticity could temper the scale of any further price increases.

Brent was last trading at $89.41 a barrel, up about 47% so far this year. Prices had earlier climbed above $126 a barrel in April during the initial phase of the US-Iran conflict.

Shipping risks have intensified in recent days. Iran has targeted, in the last few days, multiple ships crossing Hormuz.  

A tanker came under attack early Tuesday in the strait off Oman, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel, according to the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre. 

Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed the attack, as well as two other attacks on ships on Monday in the waterway. The route around Oman has been the one the US military has encouraged ships to travel to avoid Iran's control.

The UKMTO separately reported Tuesday that another previously unknown attack on a ship took place early the previous day. 

Yemen's Houthi rebels have also warned shipowners against calling at Saudi Arabian ports, escalating concerns over exports through the Red Sea.

With vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz now almost at a standstill, Rystad Energy said Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export corridor has also become increasingly vulnerable.

"If a ceasefire does not materialize, and Hormuz remains largely closed while the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping intensifies, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial," Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad, was quoted as saying by Bloomberg.