RBI Monetary Policy Meeting: GDP growth forecast kept unchanged at 6.5%

Real GDP growth for 2025-26, the current year, has been projected at 6.5 per cent. This was announced by Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra at the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) address on Wednesday. The RBI retained the June GDP forecast of 6.5 per cent.

Gov Malhotra said that Q1 was projected at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent and Q4 at 6.3 per cent. Real GDP growth for Q1 2026-27 has been projected at 6.6 per cent. “The risks are evenly balanced,” said the RBI Governor.

The projections remain same as the previous MPC in June.

Meanwhile, the RBI kept repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent with a 'neutral' stance, and the inflation projection has been revised from 3.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent for the current financial year. 

While industrial growth continues to remain subdued, rural consumption remains resilient and the services sector is also expected to remain buoyant, said the Governor.

Governor Malhotra's GDP projections come amid uncertainties due to US President Donald Trump's tariffs. He slapped tariffs of 25 per cent on India, and subsequently threatened additional tariffs for New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil. On Tuesday, Trump said he would announce the tariffs on India within 24 hours. 

India, responding to Trump's threats said the tariffs were unfair, considering as how the US as well as the European Union also have continued their imports and trade with Russia.