RBI's 2013 playbook brought in $34 bn. Can the latest scheme do it again?

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest push to attract foreign currency deposits from Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) is drawing comparisons with a similar strategy adopted more than a decade ago, one that helped bring in billions of dollars and stabilise the rupee.

According to CA Kanan Bahl, founder of Fingrowth Media, the central bank's new Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank [FCNR(B)] deposit scheme resembles the measures introduced in 2013, when India was grappling with a sharp depreciation in the rupee amid global market turmoil.

"The last time the RBI ran a similar play was September 2013. That round pulled in around $34 billion in a few weeks and helped stabilise the rupee," Bahl said in a recent social media post.

Echoes of the 2013 playbook

The RBI announced a special FCNR(B) swap window in September 2013 after the so-called "taper tantrum" in the US triggered capital outflows from emerging markets, leading to a significant weakening of the rupee.

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A recent report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services noted that the RBI introduced a similar swap window for FCNR(B) deposits and overseas borrowings, helping banks mobilise large foreign currency inflows.

According to the brokerage, the 2013 scheme led to inflows of about $27 billion through FCNR(B) deposits and total NRI deposit inflows of nearly $34 billion in FY14.

How the current scheme compares

The latest measures, announced in June 2026, allow banks to raise FCNR(B) deposits with maturities of three to five years and swap the proceeds into rupees while the RBI bears the entire hedging cost. The deposits are also exempt from Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) requirements.

As a result, banks have been able to increase FCNR(B) deposit rates by 200-300 basis points, from around 3-4% earlier to 6-7%, according to Motilal Oswal. Most large banks have already raised rates to around 6%, while smaller lenders are offering up to 7%.

Bahl believes these attractive returns could encourage NRIs to channel more savings into India once again.

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Impact on reserves and the rupee

The previous scheme did more than attract deposits. Motilal Oswal said the inflows helped strengthen India's foreign exchange reserves by $12 billion in FY14, while the average USD-INR exchange rate appreciated by 3.4%.

Charts in the report also show that foreign exchange reserves improved significantly in the years following the 2013 measures, while liquidity conditions gradually became more comfortable.

Bahl argues that if similar conditions prevail, the rupee could theoretically recover from current levels, although he emphasized that broader economic and global factors would determine the extent of any appreciation.

Can history repeat itself?

Motilal Oswal expects the latest measures to attract $40-50 billion of foreign exchange inflows in FY27 and believes they will help improve liquidity and support the currency. The brokerage expects the USD-INR exchange rate to strengthen to around 93-94 in the near term.

Whether the latest scheme can replicate the success of 2013 remains to be seen. But as Bahl points out, the RBI has turned to a strategy that worked once before—and one that helped India navigate a period of currency stress by tapping into the financial strength of its global diaspora.

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