Weather forecast: Monsoon onset over Kerala likely between June 4-7 

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said earlier this week that the onset of monsoon in Kerala will likely usher in from June 4 this year. This is a delay of almost three days as monsoon season usually begins around June 1 in the state.  

The Met department explained in its statement: “This year, the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed. The monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on June 4 with a model error of 4 days”. The statement added all its forecasts of the date of the beginning of the monsoon season in Kerala between 2005-22 were correct with the exception of 2015.  

While the IMD has said that the onset of monsoon is likely to begin on June 4 in the southern state, private weather monitoring agency Skymet Weather has said the onset date of monsoon in Kerala this year is likely to be June 7 with a 3-day margin on either side. Skymet said: “The onset will be delayed and the advancement slightly sluggish over Peninsular India. Hot weather will continue deep into June this year over central and northern parts of the country.”  

The agency added this may adversely impact kharif crops such as paddy, ginger, and banana. Skymet further said: “A lag of+/- 3 days thereafter is quite normal for the commencement of weather activity along and off the Kerala-Karnataka coast”.  

When does monsoon usually begin in Kerala?  

Typically, southwest monsoon sets in over Kerala on or around June 1 with a standard deviation of 7 days on either side. This marks the beginning of the 4-month monsoon season, which brings in nearly 75 per cent of the country’s annual rainfall. The monsoon in Kerala also impacts critical crops like wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, soybeans, and peanuts.  

Monsoon season began in Kerala on May 29 last year, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020. The onset of monsoon season in Kerala was the most delayed in 2019 as the date of onset was June 8. The onset of monsoon in Kerala began from May 29 in 2018 as well.  

IMD Monsoon forecast 2023 for Delhi-NCR, other parts of India  

Furthermore, the weather department said the Delhi-NCR region is likely to witness light to moderate rainfall on Thursday. IMD has also predicted heavy rainfalls in parts of Northeast and Eastern India over the next 5 days. This also includes rainfall and hailstorm in Gangetic and Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur till May 21. 

Also read: Delayed monsoon in Kerala this year; likely to start on June 4, says IMD

Also read: Southwest monsoon onset may get delayed on Kerala coast, says Skymet; here’s why