Rs 13,400 crore investor wealth gone! RIL target prices post Q3 results

Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) fell less than 1 per cent lower on Saturday, with the most-valued stock on Dalal Street losing Rs 13,400 crore in market capitalisation for the day, as investors turned cautious at the fag end of the session. A couple of brokerages tracking the stock have target prices in the range of Rs 2,900-3,200.  The scrip settled at Rs 2,715.25 on BSE, down 0.72 per cent.

Centrum Broking said Reliance Industries’ Q3FY24 operating performance was marginally muted sequentially impacted by subdued performance by O2C segment, which was made up by good performance by other segments, particularly the Oil & Gas segment.

"Lower fuel cracks and polymer deltas led to 13.6 per cent QoQ drop in O2C Ebitda, further impacted by lower throughput due to planned shutdown during the quarter. Increase in Oil & Gas production led to 21.8 per cent QoQ and 49.6 per cent surge in Oil & Gas segment Ebitda. Jio Platforms (Digital) added 11.2mn new subscribers, highest in recent quarters while ARPU remained flattish. Capex momentum subsided substantially QoQ. 5G rollout was completed in Q3 as planned," it said.

The domestic brokerage maintained its 'BUY' on Reliance Industries with a target price of Rs 3,299 from Rs 3,330 earlier. Reliance Industries commanded a m-cap of Rs 18,37,052.78 crore on Saturday against Rs 18,50,448.84 on Friday, a fall of Rs 13,396.06 crore.

Antique Stock Broking said the current phase of capex could be the last for this decade in O2C and telecom, delivering large cash flows in the second half. Telecom and retail are likely to drive earnings over the next two years.

"RIL announced the start-up of new energy factories by the end of the current year, clearing the likely announcement of its next phase of investment. Maintain BUY with a target of Rs 3,005," the brokerage said.

Antique said while O2C performance was weak, the big jump in oil & gas along with the strong retail, and to some extent telecom performance made up for the sequential decline. RIL's third quarter profit was largely in line with its estimates, it said.

Prabhudas Lilladher said the RIL stock is trading at 10.8 times FY26E Ebitda. It maintained its 'Accumulate' rating on the stock with a target of Rs 2,912, valuing the standalone business at 7.5 times FY26 Ebitda, Jio at 15 times FY26 Ebitda and Retail at 39 times FY26 Ebitda.

Meanwhile, Emkay Global said Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) quarter results were largely in-line with its estimates. It said oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business and Reliance Jio Ebitda, both saw a slight miss on estimates but were offset by better Upstream and in-line Reliance Retail numbers.

"We broadly maintain FY24-26E earnings, but raise our SOTP-based target price by 8 per cent to Rs 2,950 per share, on the back of higher new energy value (1.5 times EV/IC) as development progresses (giga factory commission, green H₂ PLI win for 90ktpa, etc), higher Jio EV/Ebitda target (11 times versus 10.5 times earlier on strong subscriber growth, peer rerating), and rollover to December 2024 earnings estimates," it said while suggesting an 'ADD' rating on the stock.

 

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