Reliance Jio IPO: What Elara said on valuations, growth, expansion & more ahead of RIL AGM

Elara Capital has valued Reliance Jio Infocomm at about Rs 12-13 lakh crore, based on 13 times FY28E EV/Ebitda, as India’s largest telecom operator shifts from scale-led expansion to monetisation-driven growth. Reliance Jio is likely to file draft papers (DRHP) for its digital entity soon and markets is awaiting annual general meeting (AGM) of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) on Friday, June 19.

 In its report, Elara said Jio, with a subscriber base of 524 million as on FY26, has reshaped India’s telecom market with some of the world’s most affordable tariffs, helping turn the sector into a quasi-duopoly and strengthening its position as tariffs rise and data usage stays high.

Elara Capital also placed Jio Platforms’ enterprise value at about Rs 13-14 lakh crore. It said continued average revenue per user expansion should be supported by value-added digital services across the Jio Platforms ecosystem, while Jio’s network design and technology leadership have enabled subscriber additions without a proportionate rise in recurring investment.

According to Elara, Jio is now moving from a market share acquisition phase to a monetisation-led model, supported by industry consolidation and stronger pricing power. The report expects Jio to post about 6 per cent ARPU CAGR during FY26-29E, driven by tariff increases, premiumisation, higher data usage and upgrades to postpaid plans. It added that Jio’s large 5G subscriber base and standalone network architecture offer further upside through premium 5G plans and network slicing capabilities.

Elara said enterprise and B2B businesses are also expected to contribute to stronger blended monetisation in the medium term. The report pointed to growing traction across connectivity, IoT, cloud and managed services, which it said should improve earnings visibility and revenue quality.

Home broadband was identified by Elara as Jio’s next growth engine. Citing Elara Securities estimates, the report said India’s home broadband market remains underpenetrated, with household penetration below about 18 per cent across roughly 350 million homes. 

Jio’s fixed broadband base has crossed about 2.7 crore subscribers, led by JioAirFiber, making it one of the world’s largest fixed wireless access platforms, the report said. Elara added that moving mobile-only users to home broadband can lift household ARPU by 3-6 times and data consumption by 8-10 times.

It said technology upgrades, including nLOS hardware and proprietary UBR, could improve rollout economics and support Jio’s medium-term target of 100 million home connections. Jio is scaling up through its wireless-first JioAirFiber model, which lowers deployment costs and speeds up rollout beyond fibre constraints, especially in Tier II, Tier III and rural markets.

Elara said Jio’s cloud-native 5G standalone network, pan-India 700MHz spectrum, around 500,000 km fibre backbone and AI-led JioBrain platform give it scale and cost advantages. The brokerage expects Jio Platforms to deliver 11 per cent top-line CAGR and 14 per cent Ebutda CAGR during FY26-29E, reinforcing its valuation view on both Jio and Jio Platforms.