Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 102 pts; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking the weakness in the global markets after Trump's renewed threats of tariffs on China. However, investor focus shall firmly remain on the listing of Tata Capital- India's largest IPO of 2025 so far.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 101.50 points, or 0.40 per cent, up at 25,309.50 hinting at a weak start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks got off to a rocky start on Monday after fresh broadsides in the US-China trade war spooked markets. Nikkei and KOSPI were down a per cent each, while Hang Seng lost nearly 2 per cent.

Investors will closely track India’s retail inflation print for September to be released later today, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Overall, we expect Indian equities to trade in a range with a positive bias, aided by supportive global cues and sustained buying interest in the market," he said.

Wall Street slumped on Friday after US President Donald Trump escalated his trade conflict with China after Beijing tightened its rare earth restrictions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 878.82 points, or 1.90 per cent, to 45,479.60, the S&P 500 lost 182.60 points, or 2.71 per cent, to 6,552.51 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 820.20 points, or 3.56 per cent, to 22,204.43.

In commodity markets, gold remained in high demand as a hedge against fiscal and political uncertainty, rising 0.5 per cent to $4,037 an ounce. Oil prices also regained some ground on hopes the US and China would find some compromise on trade to avoid fresh tariffs. Brent bounced 1 per cent to $63.36 a barrel, while US crude rose 1 per cent to $59.45 per barrel.

In bond markets, cash Treasuries were closed for a holiday but futures slipped 5 ticks as sentiment steadied. The dollar index was steady at 99.015 , after losing 0.6 per cent on Friday. The Indian rupee is likely to respond this week to the fallout from renewed US-China trade tensions.

From a trading perspective, maintaining a 'buy-on-dips' approach above key support zones remains prudent. A selective, stock-specific strategy is advisable, focusing on sectors likely to post robust Q2 results, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "With sectoral rotation in play, preference should be given to stocks demonstrating relative strength," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 459.20 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,707.83 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pumped in Rs 1,751 crore into Indian equities between October 6-10.

The FPI flows, going forward, will depend on how this renewed trade war pans out in the coming days as the global market sentiment has again turned negative with the reignition of the US-China trade war, said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
Nifty has formed a long bullish candle on weekly charts and is trading above the 20-day SMA, which is largely positive. We are of the view that the 20-day SMA and the 25,000/ 81,700 level will act as crucial support zones for short-term traders. As long as the market is trading above 25,000/81,700, the uptrend is likely to continue, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, the market could rally to 25,450–25,500/82,900-83,100. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the index up to 25,700/83,700. Conversely, if the market falls below 25,000/81,700, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

Looking at key levels, the 25,400–25,450 zone will act as an immediate resistance for Nifty50, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "If the index manages to give a follow through move above the level of 25,450, the pullback can continue further till 25,600 level. While, on the downside, the zone of 25,200-25,150 will act as a crucial support."
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank has successfully broken out of a multi-week consolidation, establishing immediate support around 56,100–56,200, providing a strong buffer for buyers on potential dips, said Puneet Singhania Director at Master Trust Group.

"Technical indicators remain favorable, with MACD in positive territory, reinforcing upward momentum. On the upside, resistance is anticipated near the psychological 57,000 level, and a decisive breakout above this could propel the index toward 57,600, close to all-time highs. Overall, the structure supports a disciplined 'buy on dips' strategy," he said.

Nifty Bank has witnessed consistent buying from lower levels and managed to hold firmly above the 56,000 zone, reflecting strength in the current momentum, said Choice Broking. "Key downside support is placed at 56,200, followed by 55,800. The RSI stands at 66.76, confirming bullish momentum. The overall view remains positive, and traders may consider a buying approach."